Russian Gas Industry: Outlook for Development in 2009-2010

Introduction

 
Chapter 1. Gas Industry: 2008 Results
1.1. Gazprom
     1.1.1. Gazprom’s operating results
        Production
        Reserves base build-up
        Gas transportation system development
        International gas transportation projects
        Underground gas storage
        Domestic sales
        Sales in FSU countries
        Gas imports
     1.1.2. Financial results
        Market capitalization
        Sales and revenues
        Profit
        Capital investment
        Operating costs
        Debt
     1.1.3. Comparative analysis of the first and second halves of 2008. Assessment of crisis impact on Gazprom in the second half of 2008
     1.1.4. Gazprom’s preparedness for continuing crisis
1.2. Independent gas producers
     1.2.1. Gazprombank
        Sibneftegaz
        Yamal LNG (Yamal SPG)
     1.2.2. NOVATEK
     1.2.3. ITERA
     1.2.4. Large oil companies
        LUKOIL
        Rosneft
        Surgutneftegaz
        TNK-BP
        Other players
1.3. Conclusions

 
Chapter 2. Impact of Economic Crisis on Domestic and International Gas Demand in 2009 and 2010
2.1. Outlook for Russia’s economic development and decline in gas demand in Russia in 2009 and 2010
2.2. Consumption of Russian gas by CIS and the Baltic states from year-end 2008 through 2010
2.3. Consumption of Russian gas by European countries from year-end 2008 through 2010
2.4. Assessment of Russian gas supply/demand balance

 
Chapter 3. Russia’s Gas Industry in Changing Business Environment in 2009 and 2010
3.1. Gazprom in the new environment
     3.1.1. Key negative and positive aspcts of economic crisis for Gazprom
     3.1.2. Gazprom’s short-term production and financial priorities over the crisis period
     3.1.3. Key factors of Gazprom’s operations in the FSU
     3.1.4. Gazprom’s projected gas balance
     3.1.5. Gazprom’s further plans
3.2. Independent companies

Figure 1.1. Gazprom’s production in 2000-2008 (bcm)
Figure 1.2. Gazprom’s production in 2008 by subsidiary (%)
Figure 1.3. Gazprom Dobycha Yamburg’s and Gazprom Dobycha Urengoy’s production in 2001-2008
(bcm)
Figure 1.4. Nord Stream organization
Figure 1.5. Gazprom’s domestic supplies in 2000-2008 (bcm)
Figure 1.6. Gazprom’s domestic supplies in 2008 by consumer type (%)
Figure 1.7. Gazprom’s wholesale prices for industrial and residential users in 2008 (RUR per 1,000 cubic
meters)
Figure 1.8. Gazprom’s supplies to CIS and the Baltic states in 2003-2008 (bcm)
Figure 1.9. Structure of Gazprom’s supplies to CIS and the Baltic states in 2008 (%)
Figure 1.10. Russian gas transit via neighboring countries (Belarus, Georgia, Estonia Ukraine) in 2008
(bcm)
Figure 1.11. Gazprom’s supplies to Europe in 2008 by region (%)
Figure 1.12. Gazprom Germany holding structure in 2008
Figure 1.13. Gazprom’s prices for European and FSU countries in 2000-2008 ($ per 1,000 cubic meters)
Figure 1.14. Purchasing price of Central Asian gas in 2008 ($ per 1,000 cubic meters)
Figure 1.15. Dynamic’s of Gazprom’s capitalization in 2003-2008 (end of period), $ billion
Figure 1.16. Gazprom’s sales structure in 2008 (%)
Figure 1.17. Domestic vs. international sales/revenues (%)
Figure 1.18. Gazprom’s net profit in 2002-2008 (RUR billion)
Figure 1.19. Comparative analysis of approved capital investment versus actual spending in 2005-2008
(RUR billion)
Figure 1.20. Capital investment by area in 2007-2008 (RUR billion)
Figure 1.21. Growth of third parties oil and gas and transit costs in 2003-2008 (RUR billion)
Figure 1.22. Dynamics of Gazprom's debt in 2003-2008 at the end of reporting period (RUR billion)
Figure 1.23. Gazprom’s debt structure in 2008
Figure 1.24. Gazprombank’s shareholders at the end of 2008 (%)
Figure 1.25. Sibneftegaz’ shareholders at the end of 2008 (%)
Figure 1.26. Sibneftegaz’ production in 2007-2008 by half year periods (bcm)
Figure 1.27. NOVATEK’s production in 2000-2008 (bcm)
Figure 1.28. NOVATEK’s production structure in 2008 by subsidiary
Figure 1.29. NOVATEK’s shareholders in 2008 (%)
Figure 1.30. Gas sales and prices distribution in 2008 by consumer type
Figure 1.31. Gas production by oil companies in 2000-2008 (bcm)
Figure 1.32. LUKOIL’s gas production in Russia in 2000-2008 (bcm)
Figure 1.33. Rosneft’s gas production in 2000-2008 (bcm)
Figure 1.34. Surgutneftegaz’ gas production in 2000-2008 (bcm)
Figure 1.35. TNK-BP Holding’s gas production in 2003-2008 (bcm)
Figure 1.36. Rospan’s gas production in 2000-2008 (bcm)
Figure 1.37. Gas production by independent companies (bcm)
Figure 2.1. Dymanics of Industrial Production Index in Russia in 2008 and in the first quarter of 2009 (%)
Figure 2.2. Gas consumption in Russia in 2000-2008 (bcm)
Figure 2.3. Electric power generation at thermal power stations and gas consumption in the electric
industry in the 4th quarter of 2007 and 2008
Figure 2.4. Dynamics of GDP and IPI; gas consumption and electric power generation at thermal power
stations from January through March 2009 (% of the same period of 2008)
Figure 2.5. Wholesale gas prices for industrial and residential users in 2009 in selected regions (less VAT)
Figure 2.6. Natural gas consumption in 2009 by quarter and IPI dynamics compared to respective periods
in 2008
Figure 2.7. Natural gas consumption in Russia by consumer type in 2009 (%)
Figure 2.8. Gas consumption dynamics by half-year period in 2008-2010 (bcm)
Figure 2.9. Projected natural gas consumption in Russia by consumer type in 2010
Figure 2.10. Gas exports to Ukraine by quarter in 2009 and 2010, as per contract dated January 20, 2009
(bcm)
Figure 2.11. Gas deliveries to FSU countries in 2006-2010 (bcm)
Figure 2.12. World prices for Brent crude, fuel oil and growth of Russian gas prices in 2008
Figure 2.13. Russian gas exports to Europe in 2009 by region
Figure 2.14. Distribution of exported gas volumes to Europe by region in 2010

Table 1.1. Gazprom’s interest in major FSU gas companies in 2008
Table 1.2. Gazprom’s ratings based on 2007-2008 results
Table 1.3. NOVATEK’s financial performance in 2008
Table 1.4. Gas projects with ITERA’s involvement
Table 1.5. LUKOIL’s production and financial performance in 2008
Table 1.6. Rosneft’s production and financial performance in 2008
Table 3.1. Gazprom’s supply/demand balance in 2009-2010

Map 1. Gazprom’s core fields in NPTR
Map 2. Yamal Peninsula gas fields
Map 3. Gazprom’s current and planned transportation projects in the European part of Russia
Map 4. Gas supply route from the Bovanenkovskoye field
Map 5. Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok gas pipeline route
Map 6. Gas transportation system of Ukraine
Map 7. Transit gas pipelines blocked by the conflict