Russian Refining and Exports of Oil Products: Current Status and Mid-Term Outlook

Development of world economy stipulates growing demand for high-grade motor fuels and other oil products. This is a real challenge for the Russian refining sector. For the last 10 years the average processing depth within the industry has increased by a bare 1.5%, with the industry growth mainly attributed to the increase in low-grade gasoline, diesel fuel and fuel oil. Only 40% of fuel produced in 2009 met Euro-2 standards, while just 9% complied with Euro-3 requirements. Besides, there is a growing need to switch exports to Asia-Pacific, where a substantial 50% increase in demand for oil and oil products is expected in the coming 10 years.
 
In order to meet new economic challenges and international standards Russia’s refining industry should take decisive investment and technological steps, in particular:

• increase refined volumes from the current 235 mln tons to 258 mln in 2015 and 318 mln in 2030
• increase processing depth from the current 72% to 78% in 2015 and 86% in 2030
• increase production of light products from 57% in 2009 to 63% in 2015 and 69% in 2030
• boost gasoline production meeting Euro-4 standards, while overleaping the Euro-3 stage in order to avoid redundant upgrade of refining capacities

Russian Refining and Exports of Oil Products: Current Status and Mid-Term Outlook delivers thorough examination of:

• key driving forces for production, consumption and exports of oil products from Russia up to 2015
• key industry players; refining capacities; reconstruction and upgrade programs for Russian refineries
• exports of Russian oil products and outlook to 2015
• oil products’ existing export infrastructure and its future development

Introduction

 
1. Macroeconomic Development of the Russian Federation Related to the Oil Refining Industry: Present and Future
1.1. GDP
1.2. Domestic Consumption Index
1.3. Oil Production and Export

 
2. Oil Refining Industry in the Russian Federation (from 2000 through 2009)
2.1. Changes in Oil Refining Output
2.2. Oil Refining Industry and Changes in its Structure
2.3. Major Oil Refineries as of late 2009
2.4. Oil Refining in the Russian Federation by Product Type

 
3. Domestic Consumption of Major Oil Products from 2000 through 2009

 
4. Exports of Major Oil Products from the Russian Federation from 2000 through 2009
4.1 Current Export Trends for Major Oil Products
4.2. Export Dynamics
4.3. Major Export Directions and Export Dynamics
4.4. Pipeline Exports of Products and their Changes. Exports by Railway and Other Transport

 
5. Prospects and Estimated Development of the Oil Refining Industry through 2015
5.1. Estimated Oil Production in the Russian Federation
5.2. Scheduled Changes in Production Facilities in the Russian Federation and Estimated Changes in the Refining Output
5.3 Estimated Changes in the Share of Oil Products in Total Refining Output

 
6. Estimated Exports of Oil Products from the Russian Federation
6.1. Estimated Changes in Domestic Consumption of Major Oil Products in the Russian Federation
6.2. Basic Trends Defining Export Dynamics of Major Oil Products from the Russian Federation
6.3. Estimated Changes in Major Oil Products Exported from the Russian Federation
6.4. Changes in Major Export Directions of Oil Products from the Russian Federation according to Changes in the Export Amount
6.5. Estimated Changes in the Capacity of the Export Pipeline System
6.6. Estimated Changes in the Capacity of Other Export Ways of Major Oil Products

 
Schedules

Fig. 1-1. Imbalance of Production and Consumption of Oil Products in the World in 2010
Fig. 1-2. Real GDP Annual Fluctuations in Russia from 1991 through 2009 (yellow line – forecast), percent
Fig. 1-3. Real GDP in the Russian Federation (in Current Prices) from 1995 through 2009, RUR billion
Fig. 1-4. Estimated GDP Growth and Energy Consumption in Russia through 2020 and compared to 2000, percent
Fig. 1-5. GDP and its Energy Intensity in Russia from 2000 through 2020 (in percent compared to 2000)
Fig. 1-6. Alternative GDP Forecasts as Compared to 2008
Fig. 1-7. Fuel and Energy Conditions and Demand according to the ES RF to 2020
Fig. 1-8. Consumer Price Index in the Russian Federation as of the end of the period, in percent as compared to last December, in 2009 and 2010
Fig. 1-9. Consumer Price Index in the Russian Federation and EU (in percent as compared to December 2009), December 2009 through March 2010
Fig. 1-10. Domestic Consumption and Exports of Oil Products in the Russian Federation in 2008, million tons
Fig. 1-11. Domestic Retail Market of Oil Products in the Russian Federation
Fig. 1-12. Car Fleet in the Russian Federation in 2000 and 2012 by Fuel Type
Fig. 1-13. Oil Products Consumption in the Russian Federation from 2005 through 2012
Fig. 1-14. Growth Indices of 92-Octane Gasoline Retail Prices and the Consumer Price Index, from 2007 through 2009, percent
Fig. 1-15. Correlation of Retail Domestic Prices of Oil Products and European Oil Prices
Fig. 1-16. Tax Component in the Retail Price of Motor Gasoline and Diesel Fuel in November 2009
Fig. 2-1. Oil Production and Refining by Russian and Foreign Oil Companies in 2009, million tons per annum
Fig. 2-2. Geographic Location of Major Oil Refineries in Russia
Fig. 2-3. Oil Supply and Primary Refining at Refineries in Russia from 2000 through 2009, million tons
Fig. 2-4. Shares of Companies in Primary Oil Refining at Russian Refineries, 2001 and 2009, percent
Fig. 2-5. Conversion Rate in the Russian Federation, from 1999 through 2009, percent
Fig. 2-6. Furnace Oil Production by Russian Oil Refineries from 2000 through 2009, million tons
Fig. 2-7. Geographic Location of Oil Refineries in Russia
Fig. 2-8. Russia’s Oil Refineries from the Highest to the Lowest Capacity of Primary Distillation Facilities, October 2009, million tons per annum (by feedstock)
Fig. 2-9. Oil Refining in Constituent Territories of the Russian Federation in 2008, million tons (without mini-refineries)
Fig. 2-10. Rating of Oil Companies by Oil Refining, million tons (October 2009)
Fig. 2-11. Production of Oil Products by Rosneft from 2005 through 2010
Fig. 2-12. Oil Refineries by Federal Districts, Refineries, 2009
Fig. 2-13. Mini-Refineries Producing Major Oil Products, 2009
Рис 2-14. Operating Mini-Refineries and Mini-Refineries under Construction by Capacity, 2009, thousand tons per annum
Fig. 2-15. Oil Refining Facilities of Russian VIOCs, 2009, million tons
Fig. 2-16. Conversion Rate at Russian VIOCs, 2009, percent
Fig. 2-17. Secondary Oil Refining Processes in Relation to Primary Oil Refining of Major Oil Companies
Fig. 2-18. Primary Oil Refining by Russian Companies, 2008, percent (without mini-refineries)
Fig. 2-19. Share of Secondary Oil Refining Processes in Primary Oil Refining (average in Russia)
Fig. 2-20. Oil Product Output in Russia from 2005 through 2010, million tons
Fig. 2-21. Average Annual Growth of Global Fuel Consumption from 1990 through 2020, percent
Fig. 2-22. Production by Oil Refineries in Russia from 2000 through 2009, percent
Fig. 2-23. Diesel Fuel Output of Russian Oil Refineries from 2000 through 2009, million tons
Fig. 2-24. Motor Gasoline Output by Russian Oil Refineries from 2000 through 2009, million tons
Fig. 2-25. Jet Fuel Output of Russian Oil Refineries from 2000 through 2009, million tons
Fig. 2- 26. Domestic Market and Exports of Russian Oil Refineries
Fig. 2-27. High-Octane and Low-Octane Gasoline Output in the Russian Federation from 2000 through 2009, million tons
Fig. 2-28. Oil Products in Output of Oil Refineries in the Russian Federation and Western Europe, 2007, percent
Fig. 2-29. Oil Products Produced by Bashneft in 2009, thousand tons
Fig. 2-30. World Fuel Oil Demand and Supply from 2006 through 2017, million tons
Fig. 2-31. Wholesale Prices of Oil Refineries and High-Octane Gasoline Consumption in the Domestic Market from 2005 through 2009
Fig. 2-32. Wholesale Prices of Oil Refineries and Diesel Fuel Consumption in the Domestic Market from 2005 through 2009
Fig. 2-33. Average Fuel Oil Prices from 2007 through 2009, RUR/ton
Fig. 3-1. Location of Major Producers of Oil Products in RF Regions in 2007, million tons
Fig. 3-2. Domestic Demand for Motor Gasoline, 2008, percent
Fig. 3-3. Motor Gasoline Consumption in Russia by Octane Number, 2008, percent
Fig. 3-4. Average Annual Consumption of Gasoline, Diesel Fuel and Oil Fuel by Federal Districts in the Russian Federation from 2002 through 2008, thousand tons
Fig. 3-5. Fuel and Lubricants Market in the Ural Federal District in 2009, thousand tons
Fig.4-1. Demand for Oil Products in the World from 2001 through 2010, million barrels per day
Fig. 4-2. Demand for Oil Products in the USA from 2001 through 2010, million barrels per day
Fig. 4-3. Demand for Oil Products in Europe from 2001 through 2010, million barrels per day
Fig. 4-4. Demand for Oil Products in China from 2001 through 2010, million barrels per day
Fig. 4-5. Oil Export Revenue in Russia from 2000 through 2009, $ billion
Fig. 4-6. Average Annual Prices of Urals and Brent Oil from 1999 through 2009, $/barrel
Fig. 4-7. Urals Oil Price and Actual Export Prices for Russian Oil (monthly) in 2008 and 2009, $ per barrel
Fig. 4-8. Oil Exports from Russia from 2000 through 2009, million tons
Fig. 4-9. Average Annual Export Prices for Russian Oil from 2000 through 2009, $ per barrel
Fig. 4-10. Exports of Oil Products from Russia from 2000 through 2009, million tons
Fig. 4-11. Average Export Prices of Russian Oil Products from 2000 through 2009, $ per ton
Fig. 4-12. Proceeds from Oil Products Exported from Russia from 2000 through 2009, $ billion
Fig. 4-13. Russian Exports of Oil Products, percent
Fig. 4-14. Russian Oil Exports in 2004 and 2009, percent
Fig. 4-15. Exports of Russian Oil Products to Non-CIS Countries in 2005 and 2009, percent
Fig. 4-16. Exports of Russian Oil Products to the CIS in 2005 and 2009, percent
Fig. 4-17. Main Oil Pipelines of Transneft and the CIS Countries in 2009
Fig. 4-18. Fuel Oil Exports from Russia in 1Q 2009, percent
Fig. 4-19. Oil Exports via Pipeline by Directions in 2009, percent
Fig. 4-20. Main Product Pipelines in the Russian Federation and the CIS in 2009
Fig. 5-1. Dynamics and Changes in Oil Product Use in the World from 1973 through 2010, percent
5-2. Shares of Various Internal Combustion Engines by 2030, percent
Fig. 5-4. Changes in the Quality of Crude Oil Supplied to Oil Refineries in the USA
Fig. 5-5. Estimated Growth of Demand by Oil Fuel Type in the World from 2005 through 2015, million barrels per day
Fig. 5-6. Changes in Consumption of Oil Fuel (by Type) in the World from 2005 through 2015, million barrels per day
Fig. 5-7. Estimated Processability of Russian Oil Refineries in 2017
Fig. 5-8. Oil Products Produced by Russian Oil Refineries in 2006 and 2017, percent
Fig. 5-9. Total Russian Capacity and Load of Oil Refineries from 2001 through 2017
Fig. 5-10. Estimated Changes in Primary Oil Refining Capacity and Processability (Table) of Oil Refineries in 2017 as Compared to 2006
Fig. 5-11. Motor Gasoline Output in the Russian Federation from 2004 through 2012, million tons
Fig. 5-12. Structure (Content) of Gasoline Production in the USA, EU and the Russian Federation in 2008
Fig. 5-13. High-Octane Gasoline Output in the Russian Federation in 2012 and 2017, percent
Fig. 5-14. Diesel Fuel Production Facilities and Capacity in the Russian Federation from 2006 through 2017
Fig. 5-15. Fuel Oil Output in the Russian Federation from 2006 through 2017, million tons
Fig. 5-16. Fuel Oil Consumption in the Russian Federation from 2006 through 2017, million tons
Fig. 5-17. Fuel Oil Consumption by Sectors in the Russian Federation in 2009, percent
Fig. 6-1. Current and Estimated Exports of Russian Diesel Fuel to Europe from 2006 through 2017
Fig. 6-2. Estimated Diesel Fuel Production in the Russian Federation from 2006 through 2017
Fig. 6-3. Estimated Exports of Russian Oil and Products through 2020, million tons
Fig. 6-4. Russian Exports of Oil and Products from 2005 through 2020
Fig. 6-5. Distribution of Oil and Products in the South of Russia after the Tuapse Refinery Capacity Increases to 12 million tons per annum
Fig. 6- 6. Export Routes of Russian Oil to the Western Markets
Fig. 6-7. Caspian Oil Export Routes to the Western Markets
Fig. 6-8. Oil Transportation Infrastructure in the Russian Federation from 2005 through 2020
Fig. 6-9. Transportation of Russian Oil to the Asian-Pacific Region
Fig. 6-10. Estimated Market of Oil Products in Russia from 1999 through 2015
Fig. 6-11. Potential Export Flow of Oil Products in the Russian Federation by Sea Basins in 2010
Fig. 6-12. Potential Export Flow of Oil Products in the Russian Federation by Sea Basins in 2015

Table 1-1. Federal Budget from 2010 through 2012, RUR trillion
Table 1-2. Independent Variables Used in Forecasts
Table 1-3. Post-Crisis Oil Refining Industry
Table 1-4. Output of Oil Products in the Russian Federation from 1990 through 2009, million tons
Table 1-5. Revenue Based on the Conversion Rate
Table 1-6. VIOC Ownership Structure by Federal Districts
Table 1-7. Growth of Gas and Diesel Fuel Retail Prices against the Consumer Price Index, from 2007 through 2009, percent
Table 1-8. Oil and Gas Condensate Production in the Russian Federation from 2000 through 2009, million tons
Table 1-9. Preliminary Results of the Development Concept of the Oil Refining and Petrochemical Industry in the Russian Federation to 2020
Table 1-10. Natural Gas Demand in Russia through 2030
Table 1-11. Estimated Gas Supply to Consumers in the Russian Federation through 2030, bcm
Table 2-1. Performance Indicators of Companies Producing and Refining Oil in Russia (production in the numerator, refining in the denominator), million tons per annum
Table 2-2. Primary Oil Refining in Russia and Production of Major Oil Products
Table 2-3. Comparative Analysis of Oil Refineries in Industrially Developed Countries and in the Russian Federation, 2006
Table 2-4. Average World and Domestic Prices for Crude Oil and Major Oil Products
Table 2-5. Oil Refining Output, Conversion Rate and Irrecoverable Losses at Oil Refineries in Russia
Table 2-6. Average Primary Refining Load of Oil Refineries in Industrially Developed Countries and in Russia (2009)
Table 2-7. New Oil Refining Facilities Commissioned at Oil Refineries in the Russian Federation from 2003 through 2009
Table 2-8. Oil Production at Oil Refineries in Russia from 2000 through 2009, million tons
Table 2-9. Major Oil Refining Performance Indicators in Russia
Table 2-10. Motor Fuel Production in the Russian Federation from 2000 through 2009, million tons
Table 2-11. Oil Supply to VIOCs in Russia from 2002 to 2009, million tons
Table 2-12. Primary Refining at VIOCs and Oil Refineries in Russia from 2001 through 2009, million tons
Table 2-13. Location and Description of Oil Refineries in Russia
Table 2-14. Oil Refining in Economic Regions of Russia in Percent to the Total Capacity of Oil Refineries
Table 2-15. Primary Oil Refining in the Volga-Ural Oil and Gas Province in 2007 and 2008, thousand tons
Table 2-16. Oil Refineries in the Volga-Ural Oil and Gas Province in 2008
Table 2-17. LUKOIL’s Basic Performance Indicators in 2008 and 2009
Table 2-18. TNK-BP's Oil Refining in 2009*)
Table 2-19. Corporate Ownership of Oil Refineries and Refining Output in 2009
Table 2- 20. Total Share of Secondary Refining Processes in the Oil Refinery Capacity, November 2009
Table 2-21. Secondary Oil Refining Processes in the Capacity of Russian Oil Refineries
Table 2-22. Current Technological Processes of Russian and Foreign Oil Refining (in Percent of Total Primary Oil Refining)
Table 2-23. Total Oil Industry Results in 2008 and 2009, million tons
Table 2-24. Gasoline Production in the Russian Federation, the USA and Western Europe in 2006
Table 2-25. Gasoline Production by Russian Oil Refineries – Secondary Components (without Oxygenates) from 1996 through 2004
Table 2-26. Oil Refining Output in the Russian Federation from 2003 through 2009, million tons
Table 2-27. Production of Major Oil Products in the Russian Federation in 2009, percent
Table 2-28. Oil Products Produced by the Moscow Oil Refinery in 2009
Table 2-29. Bitumen Production by Russian Oil Refineries in 2006, thousand tons
Table 2-30. Major Companies-Developers of Basic Oil Refining Projects
Table 3-1. Oil Product Sales by Rosneft in the Domestic Market, million tons
Table 3-2. Output of Major Oil Products in the Russian Federation from 2008 through 2010, million tons
Table 3-3. Production and Sale of Major Oil Products in the Russian Federation from 2000 through 2009, million tons
Table 3-4. Motor Gasoline Consumption and Estimated Consumption in the Russian Federation from 2008 through 2020, million tons
Table 4-1. Basic Requirements to Motor Gasoline Quality in Russia and the EU
Table 4-2. Exports of Oil Products from the Russian Federation from 2001 through 2006, thousand tons
Table 4-3. Oil Exports to Non-CIS Countries by Transneft System in 2009, thousand tons
Table 4-4. Oil Export Directions from Russia from 2000 through 2015, million tons per annum
Table 4-5. Pipeline System Description
Table 4-6. Oil Transit by Transneft from 2001 through 2009, million tons
Table 4-7. Oil Exports by Russian VIOCs to non-CIS countries (by Transneft’s system including by railway) from 2001 through 2009, million tons
Table 5-1. Estimated Oil Production in the Russian Federation through 2030, million tons
Table 5-2. Estimated Changes in Performance Indicators of Russian Oil Refineries from 2009 through 2030
Table 5-3. Oil Refineries Expected to be Commissioned by 2020
Table 5-4. Commissioning of Oil Refining Facilities in the Russian Federation by Five Years from 2008 through 2017, million tons per annum
Table 5-5. Output of Light Oil Products and Conversion Rate at VIOCs in the Russian Federation in 2006 and 2017, percent
Table 5-6. Pessimistic and Optimistic Forecast of Oil Production and Exports from Russia through 2015, million tons
Table 5-7. Estimated Export of Oil Products with Various Domestic Demand through 2015, million tons
Table 5-8. Estimated Development of Major Oil Refining Processes at Oil Refineries in the Russian Federation to 2030, thousand tons
Table 5-9. Estimated Oil Refining in the Russian Federation from 2010 through 2030, million tons per annum
Table 5-10. Output of Major Oil Products in the Fuel and Energy Sector,*)
Table 5-11. Basic Performance Indicators of the Oil and Gas Sector in the Russian Federation
Table 5-12. Estimated Changes in Output of Major Oil Products and Load of Processing Facilities through 2020
Таб. 5-13. Facilities for Euro-4 and Euro-5 Gasoline Production, million tons
Table 5-14. Comparison of Estimated Performance Indicators of the Russian Oil Refining Industry with Current Indicators in the USA and Germany
Table 6-1. Estimated Sales of Oil and Products by LUKOIL through 2015, million tons
Table 6-2. Estimated Oil and Gas Condensate Output in Russian Regions through 2030
Table 6-3. Estimated Exports of Oil and Products from Russia to the Asian-Pacific Region through 2030
Table 6-4. Estimated Pessimistic and Optimistic Oil Production and Exports from Russia, million tons
Table 6-5. Adjusted Estimates of Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation in 2010 and the Planning Period of 2011 and 2012
Table 6-6. Estimated Exports of Oil and Products from the Russian Federation from 2009 through 2030, million tons
Table 6-7. Potential Export Oil Flow from the Russian Federation by Regions, million tons
Table 6-8. Estimated Exports of Oil Products from the Russian Federation through Various Ports from 2010 through 2015, million tons
Table 6-9. Oil and Products Exported from the Russian Federation from 2000through 2009, million tons
Table 6-10. Sources, Routes and Directions of Oil Supplies from Russia to the Pacific Markets from 2010 through 2030, million tons per annum
Table 6-11. Oil Product Transportation by Railway from Russian Oil Refineries to Ports in the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea, $ per ton
Table 6-12. Oil Loading Turnover of Ports in the Gulf of Finland in 2010 and 2015 (million tons)
Table 6-13. Freight Traffic in the Ports in Eastern Baltics in 2009, million tons