Russian Refining and Exports of Oil Products: Current Status and Mid-Term Outlook

The goal of this study is to systematize statistical data about various aspects of oil refining in Russia and sale of oil and petroleum products. However, this study is not a mere collection of statistics as it contains projections and assumptions of the industry’s development in the future.
For more than ten years now RPI has been closely following the refining market and development of oil refineries and the study is based on the experience accumulated in research of oil refining in Russia.
The study contains information about the dynamics of changes in oil refining scopes, refining structure, the production and technological parameters of Russian refineries, dynamics and structure of domestic consumption and main export avenue structure.
The study particularly focuses on taxation issues in the industry, the impact of the new 60-66 taxation regime, and the retail sales status under a growing taxation burden.
The key sections of the report deal with:
• The current and future macroeconomic factors defining the development of oil refining in Russia: GDP, domestic petroleum product consumption, oil production and exports;
• The current status of oil refining in Russia: oil refining scope dynamics, structure and dynamics of primary oil refining, production and technological parameters of Russian refineries, taxation and government regulation of the industry;
• Export of petroleum products from Russia: main trends and factors defining the petroleum product export situation, main avenues, dynamics and structure of exports;
• Prospects and projections of oil refining: oil production projections, changes in production capacities, changes in the basket of petroleum products in Russia;
• Projections of exports of main petroleum products from Russia: main factors that would define domestic consumption dynamics in the mid-term, export scope and distribution by export avenue, proposed changes in the throughput of pipeline and rail systems and the port infrastructure.

The product will be a handy tool for strategic decision-making by companies in the refining, transportation and sales sectors.
The projections and assumptions about oil refining and sales and exports of petroleum products contained in the study are based on detailed analysis of information obtained from reliable sources which makes it possible to forecast development prospects, opportunities, as well as outline risks for the industry as whole and individual players in particular.

Introduction
Chapter 1: Macroeconomic Development of the Russian Federation Related to the Oil Refining Industry: Present and Future
1.1 GDP
1.2 Domestic Consumption Index
1.3 Oil Production and Exports
Chapter 2: Oil Refining Industry in the Russian Federation (from 2001 through 2011)
2.2 Changes in Oil Refining Output
2.3 Oil Refining Industry and Changes in its Structure
2.4 Major Oil Refineries as of late 2011
2.5 Oil Refining in the Russian Federation by Product Type
2.6 Taxation and government regulation of industry
Chapter 3: Domestic Consumption of Major Oil Products from 2001 through 2011
Chapter 4: Exports of Major Oil Products from the Russian Federation from 2001 through 2011
4.4 Current Export Trends for Major Oil Products
4.5 Export Dynamics
4.6 Major Export Directions and Export Dynamics
4.7 Pipeline Exports of Products and their Dynamics. Exports by Railway and Other Transport
Chapter 5: Prospects and Estimated Development of the Oil Refining Industry through 2020
5.1 Estimated Oil Production in the Russian Federation
5.2 Estimated Changes in the Share of Oil Products in Total Refining Output
Chapter 6: Estimated Exports of Oil Products from the Russian Federation
6.1 Estimated Changes in Domestic Consumption of Major Oil Products in the Russian Federation
6.2 Basic Trends Defining Export Dynamics of Major Oil Products from the Russian Federation
6.3 Estimated Changes in Major Oil Products Exported from the Russian Federation
6.4 Changes in Major Export Directions of Oil Products from the Russian Federation according to Changes in the Export Amount
6.5 Estimated Changes in the Capacity of the Export Pipeline System
6.6 Estimated Changes in the Capacity of Other Export Ways of Major Oil Products
Schedules

Fig. 1-1. Imbalance of Production and Consumption of Oil Products in the World

Fig. 1-2. Real GDP Annual Fluctuations in Russia from 1996 through 2011, percent.

Fig. 1-3. Real GDP in the Russian Federation (in Current Prices) from 1995 through 2011, RUR billion

Fig. 1-4. Estimated GDP Growth and Energy Consumption in Russia through 2020 and compared to 2000, percent

Fig. 1-5. GDP and its Energy Intensity in Russia from 2000 through 2020 (in percent compared to 2000)

Fig. 1-6. Fuel and Energy Conditions and Demand according to the ES RF to 2020.

Fig. 1-7. Consumer Price Index in the Russian Federation as of the end of the period, in percent as compared to last December, in 2010 and 2011.

Fig. 1-8. Domestic Consumption and Exports of Oil Products in the Russian Federation in 2011, million tons

Fig. 1-9. Domestic Retail Market of Oil Products in the Russian Federation.

Fig. 1-10. Car Fleet in the Russian Federation in 2000 and 2011 by Fuel Type

Fig. 1-12. Growth Indices of 92-Octane Gasoline Retail Prices and Consumer Price Index, 2011, percent

Fig. 2-1. Oil Production and Refining by Russian and Foreign Oil Companies in 2011, million tons per annum

Fig. 2-2. Oil Supply and Primary Refining at Refineries in Russia from 2001 through 2011, million tons

Fig. 2-3. Shares of Companies in Primary Oil Refining at Russian Refineries, 2009 and 2011, percent
Fig. 2-4. Conversion Rate in the Russian Federation, from 1999 through 2011, percent

Fig. 2-5. Fuel Oil Production by Russian Oil Refineries from 2001 through 2011, million tons

Fig. 2-6. Russia‘s Oil Refineries from the Highest to the Lowest Capacity of Primary Distillation Facilities, 2011, million tons per annum (by feedstock).

Fig. 2-7. Oil Refining in Constituent Territories of the Russian Federation in 2011, million tons (without mini-refineries)

Fig. 2-8. Rating of Oil Companies by Oil Refining in 2011, million tons

Fig. 2-9. Production of Oil Products by Rosneft from 2005 through 2011

Fig. 2-10. Production of Oil Products by LUKOIL from 2006 through 2011

Fig. 2-11. Production of Oil Products by TNK-BP from 2006 through 2011

Fig. 2-12. Production of Oil Products by Surgutneftegaz from 2005 through 2011

Fig. 2-13. Production of Oil Products by Gazprom Neft from 2007 through 2011

Fig. 2-14. Oil Refineries by Federal Districts, Refineries, 2009 and 2011

Fig. 2-15. Mini-Refineries Producing Major Oil Products, in 2009 and 2011

Fig. 2-16. Conversion Rate at Russian VIOCs, 2011, percent

Fig. 2-17. Secondary Oil Refining Processes in Relation to Primary Oil Refining of Major Oil Companies

Fig. 2-18. Primary Oil Refining by Russian Companies, 2011, percent (without mini-refineries

Fig. 2-19. Share of Secondary Oil Refining Processes in Primary Oil Refining in 2011 (average in Russia)

Fig. 2-20. Oil Product Output in Russia from 2005 through 2011, million tons

Fig. 2-21. Average Annual Growth of Global Fuel Consumption from 1990 through 2020, percent

Fig. 2-22. Production by Oil Refineries in Russia from 2000 through 2011, percent

Fig. 2-23. Diesel Fuel Output of Russian Oil Refineries from 2001 through 2011, million tons

Fig. 2-24. Motor Gasoline Output by Russian Oil Refineries from 2001 through 2011, million tons

Fig. 2-25. Jet Fuel Output of Russian Oil Refineries from 2001 through 2011, million tons

Fig. 2-26. High-Octane and Low-Octane Gasoline Output in the Russian Federation from 2000 through 2011, million tons

Fig. 2-27. Oil Products in Output of Oil Refineries in the Russian Federation and Western Europe, 2007, percent

Fig. 2-28. Oil Products Produced by Bashneft in 2011, thousand tons

Fig. 2-29. World Fuel Oil Demand and Supply from 2006 through 2017, million tons

Fig. 2-30. Gasoline Prices in the Domestic Market from 2009 through 2012

Fig. 2-31. Diesel Fuel prices and Consumption in the Domestic Market from 2009 through 2012

Fig. 2-32. Average Fuel Oil Prices from 2008 through 2011, RUR/ton

Fig. 2-33. Duties on petroleum products with respect to taxes on crude oil in 2010-2015

Fig. 2-34. Share of taxes in a liter of gasoline in Russia, 2009-2011

Fig. 3-1. Domestic Demand for Motor Gasoline, 2011, percent

Fig. 3-2. Motor Gasoline Consumption in Russia by Octane Number, 2008 and 2011, percent

Fig. 3-3. Average Annual Consumption of Gasoline, Diesel Fuel and Oil Fuel by Federal Districts in the Russian Federation in 2011, thousand tons

Fig. 3-4. Fuel and Lubricants Market in the Ural Federal District in 2011, thousand tons

Fig. 4-1. Demand for Oil Products in the World from 2001 through 2011, million barrels per day

Fig. 4-2. Demand for Oil Products in the North America from 2001 through 2011, million barrels per day

Fig. 4-3. Demand for Oil Products in Europe from 2001 through 2011, million barrels per day

Fig. 4-4. Demand for Oil Products in China from 2001 through 2011, million barrels per day

Fig. 4-5. Oil Export Revenue in Russia from 2001 through 2011, $ billion

Fig. 4-6. Average Annual Prices of Urals and Brent Oil from 2001 through 2011, $/barrel.

Fig. 4-7. Oil Exports from Russia from 2001 through 2011, million tons

Fig. 4-8. Average Annual Export Prices for Russian Oil from 2001 through 2011, $ per barrel

Fig. 4-9. Exports of Oil Products from Russia from 2001 through 2011, million tons

Fig. 4-10. Russian Exports of Oil Products, percent

Fig. 4-11. Average Export Prices of Russian Oil Products from 2001 through 2011, $ per ton

Fig. 4-12. Proceeds from Oil Products Exported from Russia from 2001 through 2011, $ billion

Fig. 4-13: Russian Export of Oil Products to Far Abroad Countries and CIS, 2009-2011

Fig. 4-14. Exports of Russian Oil Products to Non-CIS Countries in 2005-2011, percent

Fig. 4-15. Exports of Russian Oil Products to the CIS in 2005-2011, percent

Fig. 4-16. Fuel Oil Exports from Russia in 2011, percent

Fig. 4-17. Oil Exports via Pipeline by Directions in 2011, percent

Fig. 4-18. Transportation of Oil Products over Transnefteproduct system in 2011, mln. tons

Fig. 4-19. Export of Oil and Oil Products over Railroad via Russian Ports in 2011, mln. tons

Fig. 5-1. Dynamics and Changes in Oil Product Use in the World from 1973 through 2010, percent .
Fig. 5-2. Shares of Various Internal Combustion Engines by 2030, percent

Fig. 5-3. Changes in the Quality of Crude Oil Supplied to Oil Refineries in the USA

Fig. 5-4. Estimated Growth of Demand by Oil Fuel Type in the World from 2005 through 2015, million barrels per day

Fig. 5-5. Changes in Consumption of Oil Fuel (by Type) in the World from 2005 through 2015, million barrels per day

Fig. 5-6. Estimated Processability of Russian Oil Refineries in 2017

Fig. 5-7. Oil Products Produced by Russian Oil Refineries in 2006 and 2017, percent

Fig. 5-8. Total Russian Capacity and Load of Oil Refineries from 2001 through 2017

Fig. 5-9. Estimated Changes in Primary Oil Refining Capacity and Processability (Table) of Oil Refineries in 2017 as Compared to 2006

Fig. 5-10. Motor Gasoline Output in the Russian Federation from 2004 through 2012, million tons

Fig. 5-11. Structure (Content) of Gasoline Production in the USA, EU and the Russian Federation in 2008

Fig. 5-12. High-Octane Gasoline Output in the Russian Federation in 2012 and 2017, percent.

Fig. 5-13. Diesel Fuel Production Facilities and Capacity in the Russian Federation from 2006 through 2017

Fig. 5-14. Fuel Oil Output in the Russian Federation from 2006 through 2020, million tons

Fig. 5-15. Fuel Oil Consumption by Sectors in the Russian Federation in 2009, percent

Fig. 5-16. Fuel Oil Consumption in the Russian Federation from 2006 through 2020, million tons

Fig. 6-1. World demand for oil by regions in 2009-2035, million barrels per day

Fig. 6-2. Structure of oil product demand in USA, 2011, %

Table 1-1. Federal Budget from 2012 through 2014, RUR billion

Table 1-2. Independent Variables Used in Forecasts.

Table 1-3. Characteristics of the Russian oil industry in 2010-2011, million tons

Table 1-4. Output of Oil Products in the Russian Federation from 2001 through 2011, million tons

Table 1-5. Revenue Based on the Conversion Rate

Table 1-6. VIOC Ownership Structure by Federal Districts

Table 1-7. Oil and Gas Condensate Production in the Russian Federation from 2000 through 2011, million tons

Table 1-8. Preliminary Results of the Development Concept of the Oil Refining and Petrochemical Industry in the Russian Federation to 2020.

Table 1-9. Natural Gas Demand in Russia through 2030

Table 1-10. Estimated Gas Supply to Consumers in the Russian Federation through 2030, bcm

Table 2-1. Performance Indicators of Companies Producing and Refining Oil in Russia (production in the numerator, refining in the denominator), million tons per annum

Table 2-2. Primary Oil Refining in Russia and Production of Major Oil Products, 2001-2011

Table 2-3. Comparative Analysis of Oil Refineries in Industrially Developed Countries and in the Russian Federation

Table 2-4. Average World and Domestic Prices for Crude Oil and Major Oil Products

Table. 2-5. Oil Refining Output, Conversion Rate and Irrecoverable Losses at Oil Refineries in Russia

Table 2-6. Average Primary Refining Load of Oil Refineries in Industrially Developed Countries and in Russia

Table 2-7. New Oil Refining Facilities Commissioned at Oil Refineries in the Russian Federation

Table 2-8. Oil Production at Oil Refineries in Russia from 2001 through 2011, million tons

Table 2-9. Major Oil Refining Performance Indicators in Russia

Table 2-10. Oil Supply to VIOCs in Russia from 2009 to 2011, million tons

Table 2-11. Primary Refining at VIOCs and Oil Refineries in Russia from 2001 through 2011, million tons

Table 2-12. Location and Description of Oil Refineries in Russia

Table 2-13. Primary Oil Refining in the Volga-Ural Oil and Gas Province in 2010 and 2011, thousand tons

Table 2-14. Oil Refineries in the Volga-Ural Oil and Gas Province in 2011

Таble 2-15. Rosneft Basic Performance Indicators in 2009-2011

Table 2-16. Plans for refining capacity growth, Rosneft

Table 2-17. LUKOIL‘s Basic Performance Indicators in 2009-2011

Table 2-18. TNK-BP‘s Basic Performance Indicators in 2009-2011

Table 2-19. Surgutneftegaz‘s Basic Performance Indicators in 2009-2011

Table 2-20. Gazprom Neft‘s Basic Performance Indicators in 2009-2011

Table 2-21. Corporate Ownership of Oil Refineries and Refining Output in 2011

Table 2- 22. Total Share of Secondary Refining Processes in the Oil Refinery Capacity, 2011

Table 2-23. Secondary Oil Refining Processes in the Capacity of Russian Oil Refineries

Table 2-24. Current Technological Processes of Russian and Foreign Oil Refining (in Percent of Total Primary Oil Refining)

Table 2-25. Total Oil Industry Results in 2010 and 2011, million tons

Table 2-26. Gasoline Production by Russian Oil Refineries – Secondary Components (without Oxygenates) from 1996 through 2011

Table 2-27. Oil Products Produced by the Moscow Oil Refinery in 2011

Table 2-28. Bitumen Production by Russian Oil Refineries in 2011, thousand tons

Table 2-29. Major Companies-Developers of Basic Oil Refining Projects

Table 2-30 Schedule of raising excise taxes on gasoline, 2012-2014, RUR.

Table 2-31. The timeframe for making a transition to eco-compliant fuel grades as decreed by the RF government, September 2011

Table 3-1. Oil Product Sales by Rosneft in the Domestic Market, million tons

Table 3-2. Production and Sale of Major Oil Products in the Russian Federation from 2001 through 2011, million tons

Table 4-1. Basic Requirements to Motor Gasoline Quality in Russia and the EU

Table 4-2. Exports of Oil Products from the Russian Federation from 2001 through 2006, million tons

Table 4-3. Pipeline System Description.

Table 4-4. Oil Exports by Russian VIOCs to non-CIS countries (by Transneft‘s system including by railway) from 2001 through 2011, million tons

Table 4-5. Oil Transit by Transneft from 2001 through 2011, million tons

Table 4-6. A comparison of cargo turnover of the Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port Group in January-March 2011 and 2012, million tons

Table 5-1. Estimated Oil Production in the Russian Federation through 2030, million tons

Table 5-2. Estimated Changes in Performance Indicators of Russian Oil Refineries from 2009 through 2030

Table 5-3. Oil Refineries Expected to be Commissioned by 2020

Table 5-4. Commissioning of Oil Refining Facilities in the Russian Federation from 2012 through 2017, million tons per annum

Table 5-5. Output of Light Oil Products and Conversion Rate at VIOCs in the Russian Federation in 2006 and 2017, percent

Table 5-6. Estimated Export of Oil Products with Various Domestic Demand through 2015, million tons

Table 5-7. Estimated Capacity of Major Oil Refining Processes at Oil Refineries in the Russian Federation to 2030, thousand tons

Table 5-8. Estimated Oil Refining in the Russian Federation through 2020, million tons per annum Table 5-9. Output of Major Oil Products in the Fuel and Energy Sector through 2020

Table 5-10. Basic Performance Indicators of the Oil and Gas Sector in the Russian Federation through 2020

Table 5-11. Facilities for Euro-4 and Euro-5 Gasoline Production, million tons

Table 5-12. Comparison of Estimated Performance Indicators of the Russian Oil Refining Industry with Current Indicators in the USA and Germany

Table 6-1. World demand for oil and oil products in 2008-2011, million barrels per day

Table 6-2. Demand by product in China in 2009-2011, thousand barrels per day

Table 6-3. Adjusted Estimates of Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation in the Planning Period of 2012-2014

Table 6-4. Estimated Exports of Oil and Products from the Russian Federation through 2020, million tons

Table 6-5. Estimated Exports of Oil and Products from Russia to the Asian-Pacific Region through 2030

Table 6-6. Potential Export Oil Flow from the Russian Federation by Regions, million tons

Table 6-7. Projected amounts of oil and petroleum product exports from Russia though ports in 2015-2020, Mt

Table 6-8. Sources, Routes and Directions of Oil Supplies from Russia to the Pacific Markets from 2015 through 2030, million tons per annum

Table 6-9. Oil Product Transportation by Railway from Russian Oil Refineries to Ports in the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea, $ per ton

Table 6-10. Oil Loading Turnover of Ports in the Gulf of Finland in 2015 (million tons)

Table 6-11. Freight Traffic of oil and products from Russia in the Ports in Eastern Baltics in 2010 and 2011, million tons