CIS Natural Gas: Outlook for International Impact

Release date: February 2009
Language: English
Volume: 332 pages, over 230 figures, maps and tables
Format: book and cd (print-out protected)
Delivery: express mail (2-4 days)
Price: 5,800 €

CIS Natural Gas: Outlook for International Impact examines current and expected developments in the CIS gas exporting countries and the ways in which they are expected to impact the Eurasian and Russian gas balances to 2020.

The study presents mid-term scenarios of export gas flows from:

Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan

supported by estimates of their economic impact and implementation probabilities.

CIS Natural Gas: Outlook for International Impact offers detailed profiles of CIS gas exporting countries. Each country profile contains data on:

gas reserves

production scenarios

key industry players

legal and tax regime

gas transportation infrastructure

export routes and flows

growth potential at traditional and new export markets

forecast of gas volumes available for export based on projected supply-demand balance

CIS Natural Gas: Outlook for International Impact provides detailed analysis of the following export markets grouped by geographical location:

Former Soviet Union: Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
Europe: Austria, Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, Romania, Turkey
Middle East: Turkey, Iran (northern regions)
South Asia: India, Pakistan
China

Key data on each gas importer country includes:

current balance of primary energy sources
current, developed and projected gas infrastructure
historic and present gas consumption
current sources of natural gas imports
key drivers of gas industry development
outlook for natural gas demand to 2020
assessment of share of natural gas exports from the Caspian region
netback calculations to the country’s border to 2020

CIS Natural Gas: Outlook for International Impact develops three scenarios for the future of gas exports from the Caspian region based on:

demand for natural gas in Europe, CIS, Russia, China and South Asia
competitors’ contracted export volumes, current and future
gas prices on potential export markets
status of local current and prospective E&P and midstream projects

Introduction

Chapter 1. The development of Caspian gas sector during the Soviet period and relationship with Russia after independence

1.1. Central Asia and Azerbaijan contribution to the USSR natural gas industry
1.2. Russia-CIS gas supply relations after establishment of newly independent states
1.3. Central Asia and Caspian countries in the global gas industry

Chapter 2. New export routes
2.1. Supplies to Russia. North route
2.2. Turkey energy hub policy. West route
2.3. South route
2.4. East route
2.5. Consolidated capacities for North, West, South and East routes

Chapter 3. Export markets analysis: growth potential and profitability
3.1. Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries
      3.1.1. Russia
      3.1.2. Ukraine
      3.1.3. Georgia
      3.1.4. Tajikistan
      3.1.5. Kyrgyzstan
3.2. Europe
      3.2.1. Turkey
      3.2.2. Austria
      3.2.3. Bulgaria
      3.2.4. Hungary
      3.2.5. Romania
      3.2.6. Greece
3.3. Asia
      3.3.1. China
      3.3.2. India
      3.3.3. Pakistan
      3.3.4. Northern Iran

Chapter 4. Azerbaijan
4.1. Azerbaijan’s gas industry: history and current state
4.2. Azerbaijan’s energy and gas policy
4.3. Legal and tax regime in Azerbaijan
4.4. Gas reserves in Azerbaijan and potential for development
4.5. Gas industry players and projects review
4.6. Gas infrastructure of Azerbaijan
4.7. Transit policy in Azerbaijan
4.8. Gas exports directions of Azerbaijan
4.9. Azerbaijan’s positions at current markets and growth potential
4.10. Gas production scenarios in Azerbaijan
4.11. Gas export flows in Azerbaijan

Chapter 5. Kazakhstan
5.1. Kazakhstan’s gas industry: history and current state
5.2. Kazakhstan’s energy and gas policy
5.3. Legal and tax regime in Kazakhstan
5.4. Gas reserves in Kazakhstan and potential for development
5.5. Gas industry players and projects review
5.6. Gas infrastructure of Kazakhstan
5.7. Transit policy in Kazakhstan
5.8. Gas exports directions of Kazakhstan
5.9. Kazakhstan’s positions at current markets and growth potential
5.10. Gas production scenarios in Kazakhstan
5.11. Gas exports flows in Kazakhstan

Chapter 6. Turkmenistan
6.1. Turkmenistan’s gas industry: history and current state
6.2. Turkmenistan’s energy and gas policy
6.3. Legal and tax regime in Turkmenistan
6.4. Gas reserves in Turkmenistan and potential for development
6.5. Gas industry players and projects review
6.6. Gas infrastructure of Turkmenistan
6.7. Transit policy in Turkmenistan
6.8. Gas exports directions of Turkmenistan
6.9. Turkmenistan’s positions at current markets and growth potential
6.10. Gas production scenarios in Turkmenistan
6.11. Gas exports flows in Turkmenistan

Chapter 7. Uzbekistan
7.1. Uzbekistan’s gas industry: history and current state
7.2. Uzbekistan’s energy and gas policy
7.3. Legal and tax regime in Uzbekistan
7.4. Gas reserves in Uzbekistan and potential for development
7.5. Gas industry players and projects review
7.6. Gas infrastructure of Uzbekistan
7.7. Transit policy in Uzbekistan
7.8. Gas exports directions of Uzbekistan
7.9. Uzbekistan’s positions at current markets and growth potential
7.10. Gas production scenarios in Uzbekistan
7.11. Gas exports flows in Uzbekistan

Chapter 8. Scenarios for Caspian gas supply to global markets through 2020
8.1. Key trends in Caspian gas export supply to global markets
8.2. Gas exports from Central Asia and Azerbaijan: scenarios
8.2.1. White scenario with oil prices over US$ 70 per barrel
8.2.2. Blue scenario with oil prices from US$ 55 to US$ 70 per barrel
8.2.3. Red scenario with oil prices from US$ 40 to US$ 55 per barrel
8.3. Conclusions

Figure 1.1. Gas production in Uzbekistan in 1960-1990 (bcm)
Figure 1.2. Gas production in Turkmenistan in 1960-1990 (bcm)
Figure 1.3. Gas production in Kazakhstan in 1970-1990 (bcm)
Figure 1.4. USSR gas production in 1990 (bcm)
Figure 1.5. Price of gas exported to Azerbaijan in 2001-2006 and imports of Russian gas
Figure 1.6. Gazprom gas exports to Kazakhstan and Kazakhstan gas exports to Russia (bcm)
Figure 1.7. Gas exports from Turkmenistan in 1990-2000 (bcm)
Figure 1.8. Planned and actual Turkmenistan’s gas imports by Russia in 2004-2007 (bcm)
Figure 1.9. Proved natural gas reserves in Central Asia and Azerbaijan compared with global reserves
Figure 1.10. Gas production in the Central Asia and Caspian region and global gas production in 2007 (bcm)
Figure 1.11. Gas production growth in Central Asia and Caspian region in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 1.12. Gas consumption growth in Central Asia and Caspian region in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 1.13. Destinations of gas exports from Central Asia and Caspian region in 2007 (bcm)
Figure 2.1. CIS gas export routes. North, South, West, East
Figure 2.2. Transport capacities into Russia 2008-2020 as planned (bcma)
Figure 2.3. Schedule of Nabucco project
Figure 2.4. Potential capacities for gas exports from Central Asian countries eastwards (bcma)
Figure 2.5 Potential export capacities from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan by destination (based on proposed projects, bcma)
Figure 2.6. Potential export capacities from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan by destination (based on proposed projects, %)
Figure 3.1. Natural gas consumption by sector in Russia, 2007
Figure 3.2. Total primary energy supply in Russia, 2007
Figure 3.3. Historical gas consumption and average gas prices for industrial and residential consumers in Russia, 2000-2007
Figure 3.4. Gas demand forecast for Russia in 2008-2020 by RPI scenarios (bcm)
Figure 3.5. Potential gas production volumes in Russia in 2008-2020, by 3 scenarios (bcm)
Figure 3.6. Total primary energy supply in Ukraine, 2007
Figure 3.7. Natural gas production in Ukraine in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.8. Rosukrenergo’s sales outside of Ukraine in 2005-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.9. Ukrainian trunk gas pipelines length (thousand kilometers)
Figure 3.10. Ukrainian gas transit to Europe in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.11. Forecast of gas consumption in Ukraine, by three scenarios in 2008-2020 (bcm)
Figure 3.12. Total primary energy supply in Georgia, 2007
Figure 3.13. Georgian gas supply structure in 2007
Figure 3.14. Price and volumes of Georgia’s gas imports from Russia in 2004-2007
Figure 3.15. Uzbekistan gas exports to Tajikistan in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.16. Tajikistan’s gas supply structure in 2007
Figure 3.17. Gas deliveries from Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.18. Kyrgyzstan gas supply structure in 2007
Figure 3.19. Total primary energy supply in Turkey, 2007
Figure 3.20. Gas imports to Turkey in 2007
Figure 3.21. Turkey gas demand forecast with current gas export contract with Greece by 3 scenarios (bcm)
Figure 3.22. Botas possible natural gas re-export volumes demand in 2014-2020, according to White scenario (bcm)
Figure 3.23. Breakdown of Turkey’s demand for Caspian gas (exports and domestic consumption) by three scenarios starting from 2008 (bcm)
Figure 3.24. Total primary energy supply in Austria, 2007
Figure 3.25. Gas consumption in Austria in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.26. Gas imports to Austria in 2007
Figure 3.27. Total primary energy supply in Bulgaria, 2007
Figure 3.28. Gas consumption in Bulgaria in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.29. Total primary energy supply in Hungary, 2007
Figure 3.30. Gas consumption in Hungary in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.31. Gas imports to Hungary in 2007
Figure 3.32. Total primary energy supply in Romania, 2007
Figure 3.33. Gas production in Romania in 2000-2007 (bcm)

Figure 3.34. Gas consumption in Romania in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.35. Structure of gas imports to Romania
Figure 3.36. Total primary energy supply in Greece, 2007
Figure 3.37. Gas consumption in Greece in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.38. Gas imports to Greece in 2007
Figure 3.39. Total primary energy supply in China, 2007
Figure 3.40. Natural gas production in China in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.41. Gas consumption in China (including Hong Kong) in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.42. Central Asian gas supply to China in 2020, by country, with total gas pipeline capacity of 40 bcm (Blue scenario)
Figure 3.43. Total primary energy supply in India, 2007
Figure 3.44. Natural gas production in India in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.45. Gas consumption in India in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.46. Potential uncontracted gas demand in India (bcm)
Figure 3.47. Total primary energy supply in Pakistan, 2007
Figure 3.48. Gas production and consumption in Pakistan in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.49. Total primary energy supply in Iran, 2007
Figure 3.50. Gas production in Iran in 2001-2007 (bcm)
Figure 3.51. Natural gas consumption structure in Iran
Figure 4.1. Azerbaijan gas production in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 4.2. Azerbaijan gas consumption in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 4.3. Azerbaijan gas imports in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 4.4. Azerbaijan gas export in 2007
Figure 4.5. Total primary energy supply in Azerbaijan, 2007
Figure 4.6. Gas reserves by location in Azerbaijan
Figure 4.7. Gas production by top three players in 2006 and 2007 in Azerbaijan (bcm)
Figure 4.8. AIOC shareholding structure
Figure 4.9. Shah-Deniz shareholding structure
Figure 4.10. Shah-Deniz field gas production potential (bcm)
Figure 4.11. Existing and potential capacities for export from Azerbaijan (bcma)
Figure 4.12. Possible equity gas volumes of the Shah-Deniz project participants under the second phase in proportion to equity participation (bcma)
Figure 4.13. Botas plans for gas supply to Greece (bcm)
Figure 4.14. Three scenarios of gas production in Azerbaijan till 2020 (bcm)
Figure 5.1. Gas production in Kazakhstan in 2000-2007 (commodity gas, bcm)
Figure 5.2. Gas consumption in Kazakhstan in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 5.3. Gas exports from Kazakhstan in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 5.4. Total primary energy supply in Kazakhstan, 2007
Figure 5.5. Gas reserves by location in Kazakhstan
Figure 5.6. Gas production by top 5 players in 2006 and 2007 in Kazakhstan (bcm)
Figure 5.7. Karachaganak Petroleum Operating Company shareholders
Figure 5.8. Tengizchevroil shareholders
Figure 5.9. Agip KCO shareholders
Figure 5.10. Gas transit volumes in Kazakhstan in 2003-2007 (bcm)
Figure 5.11. Existing and potential capacities for export from Kazakhstan (bcma)
Figure 5.12. Proposed business model of Karachaganak gas processing
Figure 5.13. Three scenarios of gas production in Kazakhstan till 2020 (bcm)
Figure 6.1. Gas production in Turkmenistan in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 6.2. Gas consumption in Turkmenistan in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 6.3. Gas exports from Turkmenistan in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 6.4. Total primary energy supply in Turkmenistan, 2007
Figure 6.5. Gas reserves by location in Turkmenistan
Figure 6.6. Gas reserves estimates in Turkmenistan (tcm)
Figure 6.7. Existing and potential capacities for export from Turkmenistan (bcma)
Figure 6.8. Business model for gas exports to China
Figure 6.9. Three scenarios of gas production in Turkmenistan till 2020 (bcm)
Figure 7.1. Gas production in Uzbekistan in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 7.2. Gas export in Uzbekistan in 2007
Figure 7.3. Natural gas consumption in Uzbekistan in 2001-2007 (bcm)
Figure 7.4. Total primary energy supply in Uzbekistan, 2007
Figure 7.5. State objectives in development of Uzbekistan’s gas industry
Figure 7.6. Foreign investment dynamics (US$ million)
Figure 7.7. Area of prospective oil- and gas-bearing regions (square kilometers)
Figure 7.8. Depletion rate of Uzbekistan’s oil and gas regions (percent)
Figure 7.9. Dynamics of proven gas reserves in Uzbekistan (tcm)
Figure 7.10. Delineation of forecast resources of natural gas in Uzbekistan
Figure 7.11. Allocation of investment blocks in Uzbekistan by region (number of blocks)
Figure 7.12. Transit charges for pumping gas through Uzbekistan (US$ per 100 kilometers)
Figure 7.13. Scheme of Uzbekistan’s gas deliveries to Central Asian states
Figure 7.14. Existing and potencial capacities for export from Uzbekistan (bcma)
Figure 7.15. Price dynamics for Uzbek gas imported by Gazprom (US$ per 1,000 cubic meters)
Figure 7.16. Uzbekistan gas prices for Russia and Central Asian countries (US$ per 1,000 cubic meters)
Figure 7.17. Three scenarios of gas production in Uzbekistan till 2020 (bcm)
Figure 8.1. Caspian countries' export potential and gas demand by destination in 2010, 2015 and 2020. White scenario (bcm)
Figure 8.2. Caspian gas distribution within Southeastern Europe under the White scenario in 2020
Figure 8.3. Caspian countries' export potential and gas demand by destination in 2010, 2015 and 2020. Blue scenario (bcm)
Figure 8.4. Caspian countries' export potential and gas demand by destination in 2010, 2015 and 2020. Red scenario (bcm)
Figure 8.5. The gap between Russian demand for Central Asian gas and estimated supplies from 2011 to 2020
Figure 8.6. The gap between Chinese demand for Central Asian gas and estimated supplies from 2011 to 2020

Table 1.1. Uzbekistan gas pipeline projects timeline and throughput capacity
Table 1.2. Gas exports from Russia to Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in 1990-2000 (bcm)
Table 2.2. Potential transport capacities in the West route for gas exports from Turkey
Table 3.1. Net back from Russia to Turkmenistan and demand for Caspian and Central Asian natural gas in Russia in 2009-2020
Table 3.2. Gazprom’s Central Asian gas exports, comsumed by Ukraine in 2009-2020 (bcm)
Table 3.3. Demand for Caspian natural gas in Georgia in 2009-2020
Table 3.4. Demand for Caspian natural gas in Tajikistan in 2009-2020
Table 3.5. Demand for Caspian natural gas in Kyrgyzstan in 2009-2020
Table 3.6. Current contracts for gas exports to Turkey
Table 3.7. Net back from Turkey to Turkmenistan and demand for Caspian natural gas in Turkey in 2013-2020
Table 3.8. Net back from Austria to Turkmenistan and demand for Caspian natural gas in Austria in 2013-2020
Table 3.9. Net back from Bulgaria to Turkmenistan and demand for Caspian natural gas in Bulgaria in 2013-2020
Table 3.10. Net back from Hungary to Turkmenistan and demand for Caspian natural gas in Hungary in 2013-2020
Table 3.11. Net back from Romania to Turkmenistan and demand for Caspian natural gas in Romania in 2013-2020
Table 3.12. Net back from Greece to Turkmenistan and demand for Caspian natural gas in Greece in 2013-2020
Table 3.13. Net back from China to Turkmenistan and demand for Caspian natural gas in China in 2011-2020
Table 3.14. Net back from India to Turkmenistan and demand for Caspian natural gas in India in 2016-2020
Table 3.15. Gas prices for various types of consumers in Pakistan as of August 2008
Table 3.16. Net back from Pakistan to Turkmenistan and demand for Caspian natural gas in Pakistan in 2016-2020
Table 3.17. Demand for Caspian natural gas in Northern Iran in 2009-2020
Table 4.1. Recoverable gas reserves by major field in Azerbaijan
Table 4.2. Underground storage upgrades in Azerbaijan
Table 4.3. Azerbaijan’s gas balance in 2008-2020. White scenario (bcm)
Table 4.4. Azerbaijan’s gas balance in 2008-2020. Blue scenario (bcm)
Table 4.5. Azerbaijan’s gas balance in 2008-2020. Red scenario (bcm)

Table 4.6. Net back from Austria (Baumgarten) to Azerbaijan (Shah-Deniz) (Euro/1,000 cubic meters)
Table 5.1. Kazakhstan’s fields with gas reserves, classified by type
Table 5.2. Gas reserves at largest fields in Kazakhstan
Table 5.3. Specifications of Kazakhstan’s active trunk gas pipelines
Table 5.4. Specifications of Kazakhstan’s underground gas storage facilities
Table 5.5. Export by Kazrosgaz (bcm)
Table 5.6. Kazakhstan’s gas balance in 2008-2020. White scenario (bcm)
Table 5.7. Kazakhstan’s gas balance in 2008-2020. Blue scenario (bcm)
Table 5.8. Kazakhstan’s gas balance in 2008-2020. Red scenario (bcm)
Table 5.9. Net back from Austria (Baumgarten) to Kazakhstan (Beineu) with comparison o Chineese and Russian direction (Euro/1,000 cubic meters)
Table 6.1. Initial gas reserves of the major in-development fields in Eastern Turkmenistan (bcm)
Table 6.2. Current proved gas reserves of major onshore fields in Turkmenistan (bcm)
Table 6.3. Initial reserves of the major in-development fields in Western Turkmenistan (bcm)
Table 6.4. Main specifications of Turkmenistan’s major trunk pipelines
Table 6.5. Turkmenistan’s gas balance in 2008-2020. White scenario (bcm)
Table 6.6. Turkmenistan’s gas balance in 2008-2020. Blue scenario (bcm)
Table 6.7. Turkmenistan’s gas balance in 2008-2020. Red scenario (bcm)
Table 6.8. Net back from Austria (Baumgarten) to Turkmenistan (Shatlyk)(Euro/1,000 cubic meters)
Table 7.1. PSA executed with foreign investors in Uzbekistan
Table 7.2. Profit tax and excess profit tax in Uzbekistan
Table 7.3. Basic taxes and mandatory payments rates in Uzbekistanin 2008
Table 7.4. Specifications of Uzbekistan’s major trunk gas pipelines
Table 7.5. Main technical characteristics of existing export pipelines in Uzbekistan
Table 7.6. Uzbekistan’s gas balance in 2008-2020. White scenario (bcm)
Table 7.7. Uzbekistan’s gas balance in 2008-2020. Blue scenario (bcm)
Table 7.8. Uzbekistan’s gas balance in 2008-2020. Red scenario (bcm)
Table 7.9. Net back from Austria (Baumgarten) to Uzbekistan (Shurtan) (Euro/1,000 cubic meters)
Table 8.1. Gas supplies to global markets under the White scenario in 2009-2020 (bcm)
Table 8.2. Gas supplies to global markets under the White scenario in 2009-2020 (millions of euro)
Table 8.3. Gas supplies to global markets under the Blue scenario in 2009-2020 (bcm)
Table 8.4. Gas supplies to global markets under the Blue scenario in 2009-2020 (millions of euro)
Table 8.5. Gas supplies to global markets under the Red scenario in 2009-2020 (bcm)
Table 8.6. Gas supplies to global markets under the Red scenario in 2009-2020 (millions of euro)

Map 2.1. Central Asia – Center gas system
Map 2.2. Pre-Caspian gas pipeline
Map 2.3. South Stream pipeline project
Map 2.4. Turkish gas import and export infrastructure
Map 2.5. Trans-Caspian gas pipeline
Map 2.6. Nabucco gas pipeline project
Map 2.7. IGI and TAP gas pipelines
Map 2.8. White Stream pipeline route
Map 2.9. Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline
Map 3.1. Ukrainian gas transportation system
Map 3.2. Georgian gas transportation system
Map 3.3. Transit routes for Russian and Azerbaijani gas and transit payments
Map 3.4. Gas transportation system of Tajikistan
Map 3.5. Gas transportation system of Kyrgyzstan
Map 3.6. Gas transportation system of Turkey
Map 3.7. Austrian gas transportation system
Map 3.8. Bulgarian gas transportation system
Map 3.9. Hungarian gas transportation system
Map 3.10. Gas transportation system of Romania
Map 3.11. Gas transportation system of Greece
Map 3.12. Gas transportation system of India
Map 3.13. Gas transportation system of Pakistan
Map 3.14. Gas transportation system of Iran
Map 3.15. Turkmenistan gas distribution in Northern Iran
Map 4.1. Azerbaijan gas fields
Map 4.2. Gas transportation system of Azerbaijan
Map 5.1. Regions of Kazakhstan
Map 5.2. Main gas fields of Kazakhstan
Map 5.3. Kazakhstan’s main gas pipelines (current and planned)
Map 6.1. Turkmenistan’s gas fields. Central and Eastern Turkmenistan
Map 6.2. Turkmenistan’s gas fields. Western Turkmenistan and Offshore Caspian Sea
Map 6.3. Gas transportation scheme for Eastern Turkmenistan gas fields
Map 6.4. Bagtiyarlyk area map
Map 6.5. 3D map of Gunorta Yeloten-Osman fields
Map 6.6. Geological profile of Gunorta Yeloten-Osman fields
Map 6.7. Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan border area of Dovletabad-Daryalyk pipeline
Map 7.1. Uzbekistan oil and gas provinces
Map 7.2. Fields in the Bukhara-Khiva region
Map 7.3. Fields in the Ustiurt region
Map 7.4. Fields in the Fergana valley
Map 7.5. Lukoil operations in Uzbekistan
Map 7.6. Gas pipelines in Uzbekistan