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 Russia’s Market of Motor, Gear and Hydraulic Oils for Special-Purpose, Road-Construction and other Machinery: Key Tendencies, Consumption Forecast through 2030
 Automotive Engine Oil Market: Market Snapshot, Forecast through 2025, Analysis of Key Market Players and Sales Channels
 Automotive Transmission Oil Market: Current State, Forecast to 2025, Analysis of Key Players and Sales Channels
 Russia’s Gas Reciprocating and Gas Turbine Engines Lubricants Market at Small-Scale Power Generation Plants: Market Size, Competitive Environment, Trends toward 2025
 Russian Oil Drilling Market: Current Situation and Development Prospects through 2026
 Offshore Oil and Gas Production in Russia and CIS: Forecast until 2030 and Business Opportunities
 New Oil Production Projects in Russia to 2025: Capital Expenditures and Demand for Oilfield Equipment and Services
 Russian Seismic Survey Market: Current Situation and Development Prospects through 2025
 Russian Hydraulic Fracturing Market: Current State and Development Prospects until 2025
 Motor Oil Consumption in Russia: Current State and Prospects
 Oil and Gas Industry of Kazakhstan: Growing Demand for High-Tech Services
 Non-Trunk Pipelines Market in Russia: Current State and Development Prospects until 2020
 Russian Oilfield Services Companies 2015
 Russian Oilfield Services Market: Current State and Development Prospects until 2020
 Future of Offshore Oil and Gas Production in Russia and FSU Countries. Outlook Through 2025
 Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas Upstream 2015
 Horizontal Wells in Russian OFS Market: Outlook to 2025
 M&A in the Russian Oil and Gas Industry: Who is Next?
 Outlook for Import Substitution of Oilfield Services Equipment in Russia: No Easy Way Out
 Actual Consumption of Engine Oils by the Russian Vehicle Fleet and Forecast for its Development Until 2020
 Kazakhstan’s Oilfield Service Market: Rise in Investment Attractiveness Amid New Realities
 Russian Oilfield Services Companies: New Opportunities and Challenges in Light of the Current Geopolitical Environment
 The Outlook for Russian LNG Amid New Realities
 Future of Russian O&G Engineering Services Market: Outlook to 2025
 Scenarios for Development of Russian Oil and Gas Production in the Mid-Term Amid New Economic and Geopolitical Realities
 Oil and Gas Exports from the Caspian Region
 The Russian Oilfield Services Market Amid Current Challenges in the Prevailing Geopolitical Environment
 Russian Offshore Oil & Gas Fields Development: The Prospects of Equipment and Materials Market Until 2025
 The Oil and Gas Sector of Kazakhstan. Organization of Procurements at Key E&P Companies
 FSU Oil and Gas Statistic Yearbook 2014
 Russian Market for Pumping Equipment and Comprehensive Solutions for Intra-Field and Inter-Field Transport of Oil and Outlook for Development to 2020
 Future of the Market for Equipment and Materials Used in the Construction of Trunk and Non-Trunk Pipelines in Russia
 Oil Well Stimulation and Enhanced Oil Recovery Markets in Russia 2013 and Forecasts for These Markets Until 2020
 Actual Consumption of Gear Oils by the Russian Vehicle Fleet
 Oil and Gas Upstream in Eastern Siberia and Far East
 CIS Oilfield Services Market 2013
 Azerbaijan's Oilfield Services Market 2013
 Turkmenistan's Oilfield Services Market 2013
 Uzbekistan's Oilfield Services Market 2013
 Ukraine's Oilfield Services Market 2013
 Side-Tracking Operations Market in Russia 2013
 Russian Coiled Tubing Services Market 2013
 Seismic Exploration Market in Russia 2013
 Oil and Gas Industry of Turkmenistan
 Surface Infrastructure Design for the Oil and Gas Industry in Russia
 Russian Refining and Exports of Oil Products: Current Status and Mid-Term Outlook
 Oil and Gas Fleet of Russia and CIS Countries
 Offshore Oil and Gas Industry of Russia and CIS: Outlook to 2022
 Oil and Gas Non-Trunk Pipelines in Russia
 Russian Gas Export on European Markets
 Workover Equipment Market in Russia
 Drilling Equipment Market in Russia
 OFS Equipment Market in Russia and its Development Prospects
 Well stock and downhole equipment market in Russia: Current status and outlook to 2015
 Russian Market for High-Performance Hydraulic Fluids
 Russian Market for High-Performance Hydraulic Fluids: Pavers
 Russian Market for High-Performance Hydraulic Fluids: Graders
 Russian Market for High-Performance Hydraulic Fluids: Bulldozers
 Russian Market for High-Performance Hydraulic Fluids: Dump Trucks
 Russian Market for High-Performance Hydraulic Fluids: Scrapers
 Russian Market for High-Performance Hydraulic Fluids: Excavators
 Russian Drilling Market: Current State and Development Prospects until 2025
 Horizontal Wells in Russian OFS Market
 Kazakhstan's Oilfield Services Market 2013
 Oilfield Services Companies in Russia 2013
 Russian Oilfield Services Market 2013
 Kazakhstan's Oil and Gas Upstream
 Actual Engine Oil Consumption by Motor Vehicles in Russia
 FSU Oil and Gas Statistic Yearbook 2013
 Oil Well Stimulation and Enhanced Oil Recovery Markets in Russia and Forecasts for These Markets Until 2020
 Azerbaijan’s Oilfield Services Market
 Ukraine’s Oilfield Services Market
 Turkmenistan’s Oilfield Services Market
 CIS Oilfield Services Market
 Kazakhstan's Oilfield Services Market
 Uzbekistan's Oilfield Services Market
 Oil and Gas Industry of Eastern Siberia and Russian Far East - 2012
 Oilfield Services Companies in Russia 2012
 Oil and Gas Industry of Turkmenistan 2012
 Surface Infrastructure Design for the Oil and Gas Industry in Russia
 Russian Oilfield Services Market
 FSU Oil and Gas Statistic Yearbook 2012
 Russian Refining and Exports of Oil Products: Current Status and Mid-Term Outlook
 Kazakhstan's Oil and Gas Upstream 2012
 Offshore Oil and Gas Industry of Russia and CIS: Outlook to 2020
 FSU Oil and Gas Statistic Yearbook 2011
 Russian Gas on European Markets: 2010-2020
 Oil and Gas Upstream in Eastern Siberia and Far East
 Russian Refining and Exports of Oil Products: Current Status and Mid-Term Outlook
 Surface Infrastructure Design for the Oil and Gas Industry in Russia
 Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas Upstream 2010
 Oilfield Services Companies in Russia 2009
 Oilfield Services Market of Western Siberia 2009
 Russian Oilfield Services Market: Latest Developments 2008-2009
 Oilfield Services Market of the Volga-Urals Region 2009
 Russian Oilfield Services Market 2009: Facing the Challenge
 FSU Oil and Gas Statistic Yearbook 2010
 Offshore Oil and Gas Industry of Russia and CIS: Outlook to 2020
 Oil and Gas Industry of Turkmenistan
 FSU Oil and Gas Statistic Yearbook 2008
 FSU Oil and Gas Statistic Yearbook 2009
 Kazakhstan's Oil and Gas Upstream 2008
 Oil and Gas of Uzbekistan
  Russian Oilfield Services Market 2007: Analysis and Outlook
 Independent Oil Producers in Russia: Analysis, Outlook and Assets
 Russian LNG Projects: Reality and Prospects
 Oil and Gas of Eastern Siberia and Russian Far East
  FSU Oil and Gas Statistic Yearbook 2007
 Oil Industry of South Eastern Europe
  South Eastern Europe in the Big Eurasian Gas Game: New Supply and Transit Challenges
 Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas Upstream
 The Future of Russia’s Offshore Oil and Gas Industry
 Russian Gas on Global Markets: Potential, Strategies and Outlook
 Oilfield Services Companies in Russia: Competitive Environment and Performance
 The Future of Oil Exports from Russia
 FSU Oil and Gas Statistic Yearbook 2006
  The Independent Gas Producers in Russia
 Russian Natural Gas on Global Markets: Capabilities and Limits
 The Future of the Caspian Petroleum Offshore Industry
 The Future of Russian Refining and Exports of Oil Products
 Russian Oilfield Services Market 2008: Analysis and Outlook
 CIS Natural Gas: Outlook for International Impact
 FSU Oil and Gas Statistics Yearbook 2005
 Oil and Gas Exports From the Caspian Region
 Russian Gas Industry: Outlook for Development in 2009-2010
 Russian Petroleum Companies: Overseas Assets and Operations
 The Future of the Russian LPG Market
 Natural Gas Production in Russia: 2008-2020
 FSU Oil & Gas Statistic Yearbook 2004
 The Future of Russia's Offshore Petroleum Industry
 FSU Oil & Gas Statistic Yearbook 2003
 M&A Opportunities in the Oil & Gas Sector of Russia
 The Future of Russian Gas Exports
 The Future of Oil and Gas in the Russian Far East
 Central Asian Gas



Scenarios for Development of Russian Oil and Gas Production in the Mid-Term Amid New Economic and Geopolitical Realities


Release date: September 2014
Language: English, Russian
Volume: Near 70 pages
Format: book and cd (print-out protected)
Delivery: express mail (2-4 days)
Price: 1150 ˆ

 
1 EUR = 50 RUB
Price in rubles - 57 500 RUB

Economic and geopolitical risks continue to exert a considerable impact on the Russian oil and gas industry. The threat of new Western sanctions being imposed against Russia, the aspiration of European consumers to reduce their dependency on Russian energy resources, and oil price volatility on global markets are only some of the factors that have given rise to uncertainty among market players regarding the outlook for domestic industry operations. Heightened interest in this issue has prompted RPI to undertake a research study devoted to an analysis of the various scenarios underpinning development of the Russian upstream in the mid-term and the possible consequences for the industry if these scenarios materialize. 

This study examines a number of possible scenarios pertaining to the dynamics of hydrocarbon production in Russia until 2020, taking into account the existing and potential risks. Special attention is devoted to relations between Russia and the European Union due to the Ukraine crisis, economic relations between Russia and the Asia-Pacific Region, prospects for building pipelines westward and eastward from Russia, escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, as well as other factors having a direct or indirect influence on the country’s energy market. 

Assessment of the most probable scenarios driving development of the Russian oil and gas industry in this study hinges on the opinions of market players and industry experts, obtained by RPI in the course of interviews. 

The main sections of the report include the following information: 
• Analysis of the current status and outlook for the Russian oil industry and its significance in the global context
• Profiles of Russia’s main upstream players as well as projects completed and slated for implementation 
• Key risk factors facing the O&G industry and their significance
• Most probable scenarios for development of oil and gas production in Russia until 2020 and possible consequences for the market in case these scenarios materialize

Additional modules in the report analyze possible consequences for various market segments under each scenario considered.

Module 1: Demand outlook for Russian hydrocarbons on foreign markets in view of the scenarios under analysis 330 EUR (16 500 RUB)
Module 2: Demand outlook for equipment from E&P companies 330 EUR (16 500 RUB)
Module 3: Demand outlook for oilfield services from E&P companies in Russia. Market breakdown between Russian and foreign players 330 EUR (16 500 RUB)
Module 4: Demand outlook for design and construction in the O&G industry. Market breakdown between Russian and foreign players 330 EUR (16 500 RUB)
Module 5: Opportunities and risks related to project financing in the Russian O&G industry 330 EUR (16 500 RUB)

Each module can be ordered as a supplement to the main report. 

This report provides a clear picture about options for development of the Russian oil and gas industry and assesses their consequences for the market as a whole and for players in related industry segments, including E&P companies, OFS contractors, engineering and construction companies, materials and equipment suppliers, and financial institutions. 

Each scenario analyzes the scope and dynamics of production, the geographical footprint of production, feedstock demand on foreign markets, forecast need for technology, equipment and financing in upstream projects, the advantages and drawbacks inherent in the various scenarios, risks and the extent of their impact, as well as other relevant criteria for comparative analysis. 

This product could be a valuable tool in the strategic planning process for all players whose activity is related to the Russian oil and gas industry or for companies looking to enter the domestic market. The scenario approach used in the study makes it possible to better assess all the prospects and risks for companies from various segments involved in Russian O&G industry projects and to fine-tune their expansion strategy, if necessary. 
 
1 Introduction 
2 Current and Future Status of the RF Petroleum Industry

2.1. An overview of the current status of the RF petroleum industry and ongoing projects 
2.1.1. Overall production data for 2010-2013
2.1.2. Production of oil and natural gas by Russian regions in 2010-2013
2.1.3. Market shares of key industry players in 2010-2013
2.2. The most attractive medium-term projects
2.3. Comparison of the Russian and international indicators. The Russian Federation share of the global market.
2.4. Growth prospects and forecasts of oil and gas poroduction in the Russian Federation by 2020
2.4.1. Forecast of hydrocarbon production in Russia in 2014-2020
2.4.2. Comparison of hydrocarbon production plans in Russia and in the world in 2014-2020
3 Key Market Players and Ongoing Projects
3.1. Overview of key RF petroleum industry players 
3.1.1. Producer companies 
3.1.1.1. Russian producer companies 
3.1.1.2. Foreign producer companies 
3.1.2. Service companies 
3.1.2.1. Drilling service market in Russia 
3.1.2.2. Well servicing/workover and sidetracking market 
3.1.2.3. Russian service companies 
3.1.2.4. Foreign service companies 
3.1.3. Equipment suppliers 
3.1.3.1. Drilling rig market 
3.1.3.2. Market for pulling units for well servicing and workover operations 
3.1.3.3. Drill pipe manufacturer market 
3.1.3.4. Russian equipment suppliers 
3.1.3.5. Foreign equipment suppliers 
3.1.4. Engineering and construction companies 
3.1.4.1. Russian engineering and construction companies 
3.1.4.2. Foreign engineering and construction companies 
3.1.5. Investment funds 
3.1.5.1. Russian investment funds 
3.1.5.2. Foreign investment funds 
3.2. Profiles of major ongoing and proposed projects 
3.2.1. Major ongoig and proposed projects 
3.2.2. Profiles of ongoing projects 
3.2.3. Profiles of proposed projects 
4 Factors Affecting the Sector and Its Players 
4.1. Summary of key factors affecting the RF petroleum upstream sector 
4.1.1. Factors affecting oil production.      
4.1.2. Factors affecting gas production. 
4.2. Summary of key factors affecting industry players 
4.3. Significance Matrix and levels of risk affecting the sector in general and its players 
5 Market Players’ Opinion about Potential Industry Growth Scenarios 
5.1. Opinion on industry growth prospects 
5.1.1. Economic and geopolitical factors affecting the sector 
5.1.2. Key sector projects that drive growth 
5.2. Opinion on industry player prospects 
5.2.1. Producer companies 
5.2.2. Service companies 
5.2.3. Equipment suppliers 
5.2.4. Engineering and construction companies 
5.2.5. Investment funds 
6 Overview of Potential Industry Growth Scenarios 
6.1. Introduction 
6.2. Scenario 1 – Optimistic (as per previously announced plans) 
6.3. Scenario 2 – Pessimistic 
6.4. Scenario 3 – Neutral 

Additional modules in the report (can be ordered separately!) analyze possible consequences for various market segments under each scenario considered
Module 1: Outlook for external market demand for Russian hydrocarbons  
Module 2: Outlook for producers’ demand for equipment 
Module 3: Outlook for producers’ demand for oilfield services 
Module 4: Outlook for demand for design and construction services in the petroleum upstream segment
Module 5: Future project finance opportunities and risks in the petroleum upstream sector 
 
Chart 1.1. Production of oil, condensate and natural gas in Russia in 2010-2013 
Chart 1.2. Exports of natural gas to Europe by ÎÀÎ Gazprom in 2013, billions of cubic meters 
Chart 1.3. Shares of the main Russian petroleum provinces in oil production in 2010-2013 
Chart 1.4. Breakdown of natural gas production by Russia’s major petroleum provinces in 2010-2013 
Chart 1.5. Breakdown of oil and condensate production by major companies, millions of tons 
Chart 1.6. Breakdown of natural gas production by gas producers in 2010-2013, billions of cubic meters 
Chart 1.7. Breakdown of natural gas production by oil companies in 2010-2013, billions of cubic meters 
Chart 1.8. Breakdown of oil production by the top five producer countries in 2010-2013, millions of tons 
Chart 1.9. Breakdown of natural gas production by the top five producer countries in 2010-2013, billions of cubic meters 
Chart 1.10. Forecast of oil production in Russia for 2014-2020, millions of tons 
Chart 1.11. Forecast of natural gas production in Russia for 2014-2020, billions of cubic meters 
Chart 1.12. Forecast of oil production by Russia’s major competitors in 2014-2020, millions of tons 
Chart 1.13. Forecast of natural gas production by Russia’s major competitors in 2014-2020, billions of cubic meters 
Chart 1.14. Company shares of the oil production market in 2010-2013, millions of tons 
Chart 1.15. Company shares of the gas production market in 2010-2013, millions of tons 
Chart 1.16. Company shares of the drilling service market in Russia in 2013 
Chart 1.17. Company shares of the Russian well servicing and workover market in 2013 
Chart 1.18. Company shares of the Russian sidetracking market in 2011-2012 
Chart 1.19. Company shares of the Russian drilling rig market in 2013 
Chart 1.20. Company shares of the Russian market for pulling units for well servicing and workover operations in 2013 
Chart 1.21. Company shares of the Russian drill pipe market in 2013 
Chart 1.22. Structure of the Russian engineering and construction market in the oil and gas production segment, 2013 
Chart 1.23. Forecast of oil production in Russia in 2014 – 2020 (Scenario 1) 
Chart 1.24. Forecast of gas production in Russia in 2014 – 2020 (Scenario 1) 
Chart 1.25. Forecast of oil production in Russia in 2014 – 2020 (Scenario 2) 
Chart 1.26. Forecast of gas production in Russia in 2014 – 2020 (Scenario 2) 
Chart 1.27. Forecast of oil production in Russia in 2014 – 2020 (Scenario 3) 
Chart 1.28. Forecast of gas production in Russia in 2014 – 2020 (Scenario 3) 

Additional modules
Module 1: Outlook for external market demand for Russian hydrocarbons   
Chart 7.1.1. Forecast of oil exports by 2020 (Scenario 1) 
Chart 7.1.2.. Forecast of oil exports by 2020 (Scenario 2) 
Chart 7.1.3. Forecast of oil exports by 2020 (Scenario 3) 
Chart 7.1.4. Forecast of gas exports by 2020 (Scenario 1) 
Chart 7.1.5. Forecast of gas exports by 2020 (Scenario 2) 
Chart 7.1.6. Forecast of gas exports by 2020 (Scenario 3) 

Module 2: Outlook for producers’ demand for equipment  
Chart 7.2.1. Demand for drilling rigs, ea. (Scenario 1) 
Chart 7.2.2. Demand for drilling rigs, ea. (Scenario 2) 
Chart 7.2.3. Demand for drilling rigs, ea. (Scenario 3) 
Chart 7.2.4. Demand for drill pipes, millions of tons (Scenario 1) 
Chart 7.2.5. Demand for drill pipes, millions of tons (Scenario 2) 
Chart 7.2.6. Demand for drill pipes, millions of tons (Scenario 3) 
Chart 7.2.7. Demand for pulling units for well servicing and workover operations, ea. (Scenario 1)
Chart 7.2.8. Demand for pulling units for well servicing and workover operations, ea. (Scenario 2)
Chart 7.2.9. Demand for pulling units for well servicing and workover operations, ea. (Scenario 3)

Module 3: Outlook for producers’ demand for oilfield services  
Chart 7.3.1. Forecast of annual production meters drilled in Russia, millions of tons (Scenario 1)
Chart 7.3.2. Forecast of annual production meters drilled in Russia, millions of tons (Scenario 2) 
Chart 7.3.3. Forecast of annual production meters drilled in Russia, millions of tons (Scenario 3) 
Chart 7.3.4. Forecast of the annual number of well servicing and workover jobs in Russia, thousands of jobs (Scenario 1) 
Chart 7.3.5. Forecast of the annual number of well servicing and workover jobs in Russia, thousands of jobs (Scenario 2) 
Chart 7.3.6. Forecast of the annual number of well servicing and workover jobs in Russia, thousands of jobs (Scenario 3) 
Chart 7.3.7. Forecast of the annual number of sidetracking jobs in Russia, thousands of jobs (Scenario 1) 
Chart 7.3.8. Forecast of the annual number of sidetracking jobs in Russia, thousands of jobs (Scenario 2) 
Chart 7.3.9. Forecast of the annual number of sidetracking jobs in Russia, thousands of jobs (Scenario 3) 

Module 4: Outlook for demand for design and construction services in the petroleum upstream segment
Chart 7.4.1. Engineering and construction market size, US$ billion (Scenario 1) 
Chart 7.4.2. Engineering and construction market size, US$ billion (Scenario 2) 
Chart 7.4.3. Engineering and construction market size, US$ billion (Scenario 3) 
Chart 7.4.4. Outlook for demand for design and construction services, US$ billion (Scenario 1) 
Chart 7.4.5. Outlook for demand for design and construction services, US$ billion (Scenario 2) 
Chart 7.4.6. Outlook for demand for design and construction services, US$ billion (Scenario 3) 
 
Table 1.1. Exploration meters drilled in the Russian Federation in 2009-2013, thousands of meters. 
Table 1.2. Attractive production projects implemented on Russia’s mainland and offshore in the medium term. 
Table 1.3. Major ongoing and proposed projects by 2020 
Table 1.4. Risk impact matrix for existing risks affecting the sector and its players. 

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