Motor Oil Consumption in Russia: Current State and Prospects

In 2015, the Russian motor oil market has witnessed perhaps the most dramatic changes on the demand side over the past few years. No doubt, these changes were mainly caused by overall negative trends in the Russian economy. The consumer demand decline and the turnover reduction had a negative impact on most industries, and the segment of motor oils was no exception. 

The RPI study report describes in detail the key factors influencing the motor oil market development in Russia. Which of these factors are dominant in the current economic environment? How will they affect the market in the coming years? How will forecasts be adjusted in the light of new trends and macroeconomic realities? What are the main demand drivers? What changes has the structure of motor oil consumption by vehicles experienced in recent years? How will the structure of motor oil consumption by all types of vehicles be transformed in the coming years?
The RPI study report “Motor Oil Consumption in Russia: Current State and Prospects" gives answers to these and other questions.

The study report provides the motor oil market data with the breakdown by cars and trucks and by commercial vehicles and buses. The motor oil consumption volume is calculated in the study using statistical data about the vehicle fleet and the motor oil consumption per vehicle based on vehicle brand, age, mileage, service intervals, types of used oils, and regional on-road performance specifics.

The report considers in detail such issues as:
• the current structure of the motor transport fleet in the Russian Federation;
• development trends and factors of the Russian motor transport fleet;
• actual motor oil consumption in separate constituent entities of the Russian Federation and countrywide, the forecast for a period up to 2020
• motor oil consumption by individual types of vehicles: cars and trucks, commercial vehicles and buses;

The analysis of motor oil consumption volumes and the demand forecast presented in the report will ensure for market participants a more balanced approach to making short-term and mid-term sales business plans.

The detailed analysis of the motor oil consumption with the breakdown by regions and types of vehicles presented in the report will be useful to market participants, including those at a regional level, in developing an optimal marketing policy, establishing cooperation with dealer networks and organizing the effective logistics.

1 INTRODUCTION 
2 KEY CONCLUSIONS
3 RUSSIA’S AUTOMOBILE FLEET. TRENDS, GROWTH DRIVERS, MARKET FORECASTS, 2015-2020 
3.1 RUSSIA’S PASSENGER CAR FLEET
3.2 RUSSIA’S TRUCK FLEET 
3.2.1 Russia’s light commercial vehicle (LCV) fleet 
3.2.2 Russia’s truck fleet (CV and HCV) 
3.3 RUSSIA’S BUS FLEET
4 MOTOR OILS FOR RUSSIA’S CURRENT PASSENGER CAR FLEET
4.1 FIRST FILLING OILS FOR RUSSIA’S PASSENGER CAR FLEET 
4.2 FORECASTED MOTOR OIL CONSUMPTION BY PASSENGER CARS 
5 TRUCK MOTOR OIL CONSUMPTION BY REGION
5.1 MOTOR OILS FOR LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES (LCV) 
5.1.1 Motor oil consumption for Russia’s current LCV fleet
5.1.2 First filling oil for LCV 
5.1.3 Forecasted LCV motor oil consumption 

5.2 MOTOR OILS FOR COMMERCIAL VEHICLES (CV) AND HEAVY COMMERCIAL VEHICLES (HCV) 
5.2.1 Motor oils for Russia’s current truck fleet 
5.2.2 First filling oil for trucks 
5.2.3 Forecasted motor oil consumption by Russia’s truck fleet
6 RUSSIA’S BUS MOTOR OIL CONSUMPTION BY REGION
6.1 MOTOR OILS FOR RUSSIA’S CURRENT BUS FLEET 
6.2 FIRST FILLING OILS FOR BUSES 
6.3 FORECASTED MOTOR OIL CONSUMPTION BY BUSES 
7 DEMAND FOR MOTOR OILS 
7.1 MAIN TRENDS ON THE RUSSIAN MOTOR OIL MARKET, 2013–2015 
7.2 MOTOR OIL CONSUMPTION BY VEHICLE TYPE 
7.3 MOTOR OIL CONSUMPTION BY REGION 
7.4 MOTOR OIL CONSUMPTION BY MOTOR OIL TYPE
7.5 FORECASTED DEMAND FOR MOTOR OILS, 2015–2020 
7.6 RUSSIA’S MOTOR OIL CONSUMPTION PER VEHICLE 

Diagram 3.1 Russia’s automobile fleet by vehicle as of 01.01.2015 (millions of vehicles, % out of all vehicles) 
Diagram 3.2 Russia’s automobile fleet by federal district as of 01.01.2015, % out of all vehicles 
Diagram 3.3 Russia’s passenger car fleet by federal districts as of 01.01.2015, millions of vehicles, % 
Diagram 3.4 Russia’s top 20 regions in terms of passenger car fleets as of 01.01.2015, thousands of vehicles 
Diagram 3.5 Per capita passenger car ownership by federal district as of 01.01.2015, number of passenger cars/ thousand people
Diagram 3.6 Russia’s top 20 regions in terms of per capita passenger car ownership as of 01.01.2015, passenger cars/ thousand people 
Diagram 3.7 Russia’s passenger car fleet by vehicle age as of 01.01.2015, % 
Diagram 3.8 Russia’s passenger car fleet by brand as of 01.01.2015, % 
Diagram 3.9 Russia’s passenger car fleet by manufacturing country, 2010–2020, millions of vehicles, % 
Diagram 3.10 Russia’s LCV fleet by federal district as of 01.01.2015, % 
Diagram 3.11 Russia’s LCV fleet by federal district as of 01.01.2015, thousands of vehicles, % 
Diagram 3.12 Russia’s per capita LCV ownership by federal district as of 01.01.2015, vehicles/thousand people 
Diagram 3.13 Russia’s top 20 regions in terms of LCV per capita ownership as of 01.01.2015, vehicles/thousand people 
Diagram 3.14 Russia’s LCV fleet by vehicle age as of 01.01.2015, %
Diagram 3.15 Russia’s LCV fleet by brand as of 01.01.2015, % 
Diagram 3.16 Russia’s CV and HCV fleet by federal district as of 01.01.2015, %
Diagram 3.17 Russia’s top 20 truck fleets by region as of 01.01.2015, thousands of vehicles

Diagram 3.18 Russia’s per capita truck ownership by federal district as of 01.01.2015, trucks/thousand people 
Diagram 3.19 Russia’s top 20 regions in terms of per capita truck ownership as of 01.01.2015, trucks/ thousand people 
Diagram 3.20 Russia’s truck fleet by vehicle age as of 01.01.2015, % 
Diagram 3.22 Russia’s truck fleet by manufacturing country, 2010–2020, thousands of vehicles, % 
Diagram 3.21 Russia’s truck fleet by brand as of 01.01.2015, % 
Diagram 3.23 Russia’s bus fleet by federal district as of 01.01.2015, % 
Diagram 3.24 Russia’s top 20 bus fleets by region as of 01.01.2015, thousands of vehicles 
Diagram 3.25 Russia’s per capita bus ownership by federal district as of 01.01.2015, buses/thousand people
Diagram 3.26 Russia’s top 20 regions in terms of per capita bus ownership as of 01.01.2015, buses/ thousands of people 
Diagram 3.27 Russia’s bus fleet by vehicle age as of 01.01.2015, % 
Diagram 3.28 Russia’s bus fleet by brand as of 01.01.2015, % 
Diagram 4.1 Passenger car motor oil consumption by federal district and type of motor oil, 2014, tons of motor oil, % 
Diagram 4.2 Russia’s top 20 regions in terms of passenger car motor oil consumption, 2014, tons of motor oil 
Diagram 4.3 Passenger car motor oil consumption by federal districts, 2014, % 
Diagram 4.4 Actual and forecasted passenger car production in Russia, 2010–2020, thousands of vehicles
Diagram 4.5 Passenger car production in Russia by company in 2014, %
Diagram 4.6 Actual and forecasted first filling oil consumption by passenger cars, 2010–2020, tons of oil 

Diagram 4.7 Forecasted and actual motor oil consumption by passenger cars, 2010–2020, tons of oil 
Diagram 4.8 Passenger car motor oil consumption by type of motor oil, 2010–2020, tons of oil, % 
Diagram 5.1 Truck motor oil consumption by federal district and type of motor oil in 2014, tons of oil, % 
Diagram 5.2 Russia’s top 20 regions in terms of LCV motor oil consumption, 2014, tons of oil
Diagram 5.3 LCV motor oil consumption by federal districts in 2014, %
Diagram 5.4 Actual and forecasted LCV production in Russia, 2010–2020, thousands of vehicles
Diagram 5.5 LCV production by automobile manufacturer in Russia, 2014, % 
Diagram 5.6 Actual and forecasted first filling oil consumption by LCV, 2010–2020, tons of motor oil 
Diagram 5.7 Actual and forecasted LCV motor oil consumption, 2010–2020, tons of oil
Diagram 5.8 LCV motor oil consumption by type of motor oil, 2010–2020 (actual and forecasted), tons of oil, % 
Diagram 5.9 CV and HCV motor oil consumption by federal district and type of motor oil in 2014, tons of oil, %
Diagram 5.10 Russia’s top 20 regions in terms of CV and HCV motor oil consumption, 2014, tons of oil 
Diagram 5.11 CV and HCV motor oil consumption by federal district, 2014, tons of oil, % 
Diagram 5.12 Actual and forecasted CV and HCV production in Russia, 2010–2020, thousands of vehicles, annual percentage growth
Diagram 5.13 CV and HCV production by manufacturer in Russia, 2014, number of vehicles, % 
Diagram 5.14 Actual and forecasted first filling oil consumption by CV and HCV, 2010–2020, tons of oil 

Diagram 5.15 Actual and forecasted CV and HCV motor oil consumption, 2010–2020, tons of oil, % annual growth
Diagram 5.16 Actual and forecasted CV and HCV motor oil consumption by type of motor oil, 2010–2020, tons of oil, % 
Diagram 6.1 Bus motor oil consumption by federal district and type of motor oil in 2014, tons of oil, %
Diagram 6.2 Russia’s top 20 regions in terms of bus motor oil consumption, 2014, tons of oil
Diagram 6.3 Bus motor oil consumption by federal district in 2014, % 
Diagram 6.4 Actual and forecasted bus production in Russia, 2010–2010, thousands of vehicles, % 
Diagram 6.5 Bus production by manufacturer in Russia, 2014, %
Diagram 6.6 Actual and forecasted first filling oil consumption by buses, 2010–2020, tons of oil 
Diagram 6.7 Actual and forecasted bus motor oil consumption, 2010–2020, tons
Diagram 6.8 Forecasted and actual bus motor oil consumption by types of motor oil, 2010–2020, tons of oil, % 
Diagram 7.1 Motor oil consumption by vehicle type in 2014, % 
Diagram 7.2 Motor oil consumption by federal district in 2014, % 
Diagram 7.3 Motor oil consumption by federal district in 2014, tons/thousand people 
Diagram 7.4 Motor oil consumption by vehicle type and type of motor oil in 2014, tons of oil 
Diagram 7.5 Motor oil consumption by vehicle type in 2014, %
Diagram 7.6 Russia’s actual and forecasted motor oil consumption by type of motor oil, 2010–2020, tons, %
Diagram 7.7 Russia’s actual and forecasted motor oil consumption, 2010–2020, thousands of tons 

Table 3.1 Russia’s passenger car fleet by region, 2012–2015, thousands of vehicles
Table 3.2 Per capita passenger car ownership by federal district, 2012–2015, passenger cars/thousand people 
Table 3.3 Per capita passenger car ownership for Russia’s largest regions, 2012–2015, passenger cars/thousand people 
Table 3.4 Russia’s passenger car fleet by vehicle age and manufacturing country as of 01.01.2015, number of vehicles, % 
Table 3.5 Russia’s passenger car fleet by brand as of 01.01.2015, number of vehicles, % 
Table 3.6 Russia’s forecasted passenger car fleet by manufacturing country, thousands of vehicles, 2015–2020 
Table 3.7 Russia’s LCV fleet by region, 2011–2014, thousands of vehicles
Table 3.8 Russia’s per capita LCV ownership by federal district, 2011–2014, vehicles/thousand people 
Table 3.9 Russia’s top 20 regions in terms of per capita LCV ownership, 2011–2014, vehicles/thousand people 
Table 3.10 Russia’s LCV fleet by vehicle age and manufacturing country as of 01.01.2015, number of vehicles, %
Table 3.11 Russia’s LCV fleet by brand as of 01.01.2015, number of vehicles, %
Table 3.12 Russia’s actual and forecasted LCV fleet by manufacturing country, thousands of vehicles, 2010–2020 
Table 3.13 Russia’s top 20 truck fleets by region, 2011–2014, thousands of vehicles
Table 3.14 Russia’s actual per capita truck ownership by federal district, 2011–2014, trucks/thousand people 
Table 3.15 Russia’s top 20 regions in terms of per capita truck ownership, 2011–2014
Table 3.16 Russia’s truck fleet by vehicle age and manufacturing country as of 01.01.2015, number of vehicles, % 

Table 3.17 Russia’s truck fleet by brand as of 01.01.2015, number of vehicles, % 
Table 3.18 Russia’s actual and forecasted truck fleet by manufacturing country, thousands of vehicles, 2010–2020 
Table 3.19 Russia’s top 20 bus fleets by region, 2011–2014, thousands of vehicles 
Table 3.20 Russia’s per capita bus ownership by federal district, 2011–2014, buses/thousand people 
Table 3.21 Russia’s per capita bus ownership by region, 2011–2014, vehicles/thousand people 
Table 3.22 Russia’s bus fleet by vehicle age and manufacturing country as of 01.01.2015, number of vehicles, %
Table 3.23 Russia’s bus fleet by brand as of 01.01.2015, thousands of vehicles, %
Table 3.24 Russia’s actual and forecasted bus fleet by manufacturing country, 2010–2020, thousands of vehicles 
Table 4.1 Russia’s passenger car fleet and motor oil consumption by region in 2014, thousands of vehicles, tons of motor oil 
Table 5.1 Russia’s LCV fleet and motor oil consumption by region in 2014, thousands of vehicles, tons of motor oil 
Table 5.2 Russia’s CV and HCV fleet and motor oil consumption by region
Table 6.1 Russia’s bus fleet and motor oil consumption by region in 2014, thousands of vehicles, tons of oil
Table 7.1 Regional distribution of Russia’s main automobile manufacturers, 2014 
Table 7.2 Regional distribution of Russia’s main automobile engine manufacturers, 2014 
Table 7.3 Russia’s motor oil consumption by vehicle type in 2014, tons, kg/vehicle