Offshore Oil and Gas Production in Russia and CIS: Forecast until 2030 and Business Opportunities

RPI brings to your attention the multi-faceted research entitled “Offshore Oil and Gas Production in Russia and CIS: Forecast until 2030 and Business Opportunities”, which contains the forecast of development of offshore production projects until 2030 and evaluates demand for main types of equipment and services in the Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic Seas, as well as in the Arctic and the Far East. 

• Global oil prices had stabilized by 2017, increasing certainty in the planning of offshore projects and thus offering an opportunity to forecast the passage of investment decisions on field development. 

• The role of offshore production in the overall oil and gas production will be increasing in Russia and Kazakhstan. In Russia, according to the national Energy Strategy by 2035, offshore oil production is expected to grow from 4.3 percent of total oil production in 2016 to more than 7 percent in 2030, representing a jump from 20 million tons per annum to 38 million tons. Meanwhile, offshore gas production is forecast to account for 10 percent of total gas production in 2030. 

• In Kazakhstan, the share of offshore production is bound to grow from 1.3 percent in 2016 to 27 percent as early as 2025, with the Kashagan project as the key growth driver.

• In 2017-2030, Russia forecasts to bring onstream more than 800 million tons of recoverable oil reserves and around 1.9 trillion cubic meters of recoverable gas reserves. This effort is going to require appropriate investments.

• Currently, there are 142 valid offshore licenses in Russia. During the 2010-2013 span, 60 of those were issued to only two companies, Gazprom and Rosneft.

• Russia’s government authorities aim to make sure that license obligations are completely fulfilled. This provides an opportunity for making a midterm forecast on the scope of work and demand for oilfield services (such as seismics and drilling) during the geological exploration stage, production and transportation facilities (platforms, etc), as well as equipment and services for field operation.

• In 2014-2016, the imports substitution policy was implemented with some success, also providing an opportunity to assess more accurately internal and external restrictions, and realistic prospects for technological development of offshore exploration and production in midterm.

The research aims to assist clients in making strategic decisions related to offshore production projects, including investment planning and business development in such fields as equipment manufacturing, provision of technological services, infrastructure development and other types of activities. 

The “Offshore Oil and Gas Production in Russia and CIS: Forecast until 2030 and Business Opportunities” research contains a scenario-based forecast of production projects’ development, based on the generalized estimation of economic efficiency and the breakeven point in offshore production projects, and also takes into account the impact of factors such as technology and manufacturing capabilities and sanctions-related restrictions.

1) Oil and gas production volumes. 

2) Scope of capital investment.

3) Scope of 2D and 3D seismics and demand for seismic vessels.

4) Number of constructed exploration and production wells; exploratory and production drilling footage.

5) Demand for main types of services and equipment used in well construction.

6) Demand for floating drilling rigs and fixed platforms, specified by type.

7) Demand for offshore pipelines.

The research also contains the analysis of opportunities, risks and prospects for international cooperation in areas such as supply of equipment, services and technology for offshore production.

- oil and gas project operators

- producers of oil and gas equipment and facilities

- oilfield services providers

- shipping and logistics companies 

- investment and finance companies

4.1 Russian Federation 

4.2 Kazakhstan 

6.1 Geographic, natural and climate conditions in offshore areas

6.1.1 Caspian Sea 

6.1.2 Black Sea 

6.1.3 Azov Sea 

6.2 Issue of maritime borders delimitation in offshore areas 

7.1 Caspian Sea 

7.1.1 Azerbaijan’s sector 

7.1.2 Kazakhstan’s sector 

7.1.3 Russia’s sector 

7.1.4 Turkmenistan’s sector 

7.1.5 Iran’s sector

7.2 Black and Azov Seas 

7.2.1 Abkhazia’s and Georgia’s sectors 

7.2.2 Russia’s sector 

10.1 Caspian Sea 

10.2 Black and Azov Seas 

10.3. General evaluation as per offshore areas

10.4 Evaluation of demand for main types of services and equipment used in well construction

Appendix 1. Correspondence of oil and gas reserves classifications used in Russia and the United States

6.1 Geographic, natural and climate conditions in offshore areas 

6.1.1 Baltic Sea 

6.1.2 Arctic Seas 

6.2 Russian borders’ delimitation in the Baltic Sea and the Arctic

8.1 Baltic Sea 

8.1.1 Kravtsovskoye field

8.1.2 D-6 features (Yuzhnaya), D-33, D-41 and D-49

8.2 Barents and Pechora Seas 

8.2.1 SINTEZ Group’s former projects 

8.2.2 Severneftegaz projects 

8.2.3 Prirazlomnoye field 

8.2.4 Shtokman field 

8.2.5 Rosneft’s prospects 

8.2.6 Gazprom’s prospects

8.2.7 Unallocated blocks

8.3 Kara Sea 

8.4 Ob and Taz Bays

8.5. Offshore areas to the east of Yamal Peninsula

10.1 Baltic Sea 

10.2 Barents and Pechora Seas 

10.3 Kara Sea 

10.4 Ob and Taz Bays

10.5 Offshore areas to the east of Yamal Peninsula 

10.6 General evaluation as per offshore areas 

10.7 Evaluation of demand for main types of services and equipment used in well construction 

6.1 Geographic, natural and climate conditions in offshore areas 

6.1.1 Bering Sea 

6.1.2 Sea of Okhotsk 

6.1.3 Sea of Japan 

6.2 Maritime borders’ delimitation problem 

8. Exploration and production projects 

8.1 Bering Sea 

8.1.1 Anadyr 1 

8.1.2 Anadyr 2-3 

8.2 Sea of Okhotsk 

8.2.1 West Kamchatka offshore 

8.2.2 Magadan 1-4

8.2.3 Koryakia 1-2 and Kamchatsky 1 

8.2.4 Khabarovsk 1, Khabarovsk 3 

8.2.5 Sakhalin 1

8.2.6 Sakhalin 2 

8.2.7 Sakhalin 3

8.2.8 Sakhalin 4-5 

8.2.9 Lopukhovsky block 

8.2.10 Sakhalin 6 

8.2.11 Sakhalin 7 

8.3 Sea of Japan 

8.3.1 Sakhalin 8-9 

8.3.2 Khabarovsk 2, Khabarovsk 4 

10.1 Bering Sea 

10.2 Sea of Okhotsk 

10.3 Sea of Japan

10.4. General evaluation as per offshore areas 

10.5 Evaluation of demand for main types of services and equipment used in well construction