Russian Natural Gas on Global Markets: Capabilities and Limits

Russian Natural Gas on Global Markets: Capabilities and Limits delivers a comprehensive analysis of the gas supply chain and balance of Gazprom, and provides an outlook for the company’s impact on international markets with three scenarios for the development of Gazprom’s capability of a global gas player.

 
The study addresses the following key questions:

• Is Gazprom capable of reaching its global objectives?
• What strategies could strengthen the role of Russian gas on global markets?
• What are the key strengths and weaknesses that shape Gazprom’s positions on international markets?

 

Russian Natural Gas on Global Markets: Capabilities and Limits goes beyond the facade of official statements by government officials and corporate executives, and provides valuable insight into the strategic choices faced and made by Gazprom.

 
The study analyses the main blocks of issues:

• gas reserves of Russia and Gazprom.
• development prospects for traditional and new gas provinces, outlook for Gazprom’s production capability.
• gas transportation system: condition, plans for developing new export routes.
• Gazprom’s positions on 32 current and prospective international markets: infrastructure, business practices and mid-term outlook.
• decision-making factors and practices at government and corporate level

 

The study develops three scenarios for the development of Gazprom’s exports allowing to assess the company’s impact on global gas markets.

 
The study is an essential analytical support tool for:

• energy policy-makers
• gas producers
• utilities and other gas consumers
• transportation, distribution and trading companies
• gas downstream companies
• banks and investment organizations
• contractors and equipment suppliers

Chapter 1. Russia and the Global Natural Gas Market

 

Chapter 2. Russian Gas Reserves
2.1. Overview of Russian gas reserves
2.2. Onshore and offshore gas reserves relevant for gas exports
2.3. Gazprom's proved gas reserves
2.4. The struggle for gas reserves: Gazprom vs the independents
2.5. Conclusions

 
Chapter 3. Russian Gas Production: Current Situation and Future Development
3.1. Russian gas production: From the start of development of West Siberian fields to tenure of Alexei Miller
3.2. Gazprom's production: the current situation
3.3. Outlook for Gazprom's gas production: priorities, investment requirements and implementation prospects
3.4. Conclusions

 
Chapter 4. Russian Gas Pipeline Transportation System
4.1. The United Gas Transmission System of Russia
4.2. Gazprom's current and future export transportation projects
4.3. Conclusions

 

Chapter 5. Current and Prospective Country Markets for Russian Gas
5.1. Armenia
5.2. Austria
5.3. Azerbaijan
5.4. Belarus
5.5. Belgium
5.6. Bulgaria
5.7. China
5.8. Czech Republic
5.9. Estonia
5.10. Finland

5.11.1. Croatia
5.11.2. Slovenia
5.11.3. Bosnia and Herzegovina
5.11.4. Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
5.11.5. Serbia and Montenegro
5.12. France
5.13. Georgia
5.14. Germany
5.15. Greece
5.16. Hungary
5.17. Italy
5.18 Japan
5.19. Latvia
5.20. Lithuania
5.21. Moldova
5.22. The Netherlands
5.23. Poland
5.24. Romania
5.25. Slovakia
5.26. South Korea (Republic of Korea)
5.27. Switzerland
5.28. Taiwan
5.29. Turkey
5.30. United Kingdom
5.31. Ukraine
5.32. United States

 
Chapter 6. Gazprom's Exports in the Mid-term Future: the Scenarios
6.1. Key trends in development of Gazprom's exports
6.2 The scenarios for development of Gazprom's exports to 2010-2015
6.3 Conclusions

Figure 1.1. World gas proved reserves, 2004
Figure 1.2. World gas production (delivered to consumers), 2004
Figure 1.3. Gas consumption in Russia by sector, 2003. Total = 375 bcm
Figure 1.4. Direct government equity ownership in Gazprom
Figure 1.5. Gas supplies to Europe from Gazprom and other sources, 1989-2004 (bcm)
Figure 1.6. Importance of gas exports for Gazprom, 2004
Figure 1.7. Priorities of Gazprom's gas business development
Figure 1.8. Russian gas sales to FSU countries and export gas prices, 2000-2004
Figure 1.9. Russian gas sales to Europe (excluding FSU) and export gas prices, 2000-2004
Figure 1.10. Diversification of Gazprom's export activity
Figure 1.11. Scenarios for exports of gas produced in Russia, 2004-2010-2015
Figure 2.1.1. Proved gas reserves in Russia
Figure 2.2.1. Gas reserves of Eastern Siberia and Far East of Russia as compared to reserves of the Asia-Pacific countries (tcm)
Figure 2.3.1. Gazprom's proved gas reserves according to Russian and international classifcation (tcm)
Figure 2.3.2. Distribution of Gazprom's gas reserves in Russia, as of Dec 31, 2004 (ABC1 reserves, tcm)
Figure 2.3.3. Gazprom's largest gas fields (ABC1 reserves, tcm)
Figure 2.3.4. Reserves replacement by Gazprom, 1997-2004 (bcm)
Figure 2.3.5. Exploration expenditures and growth of proved gas reserves at Gazprom
Figure 3.1.1. Production during the Soviet period, 1970-1991 (bcm)
Figure 3.1.2. Gas production in Russia, 1991-2004 (bcm)
Figure 3.2.1 Gas wells brough onstream, 1999-2003
Figure 3.3.1. Feasibility of Gazprom's priority projects in respect to consumer markets
Figure 3.3.2. Gazprom's gas production: Cycles of core current production assets and replacement required, 2010-2020-2030
Figure 3.3.3. Growth of gas prices in Russia in 2000-2005 and outlook for 2010
Figure 3.3.4. Anticipated growth of gas production at Yamal fields (peak of production: 250 bcm)
Figure 3.3.5. Outlook for gas production at main provinces in Eastern Siberia and Far East up to 2030 (bcm)
Figure 3.3.6. Gas production at Shtokmanovskoye (peak production: 67.5 bcm)
Figure 4.1.1. The age of Gazprom's pipelines
Figure 4.1.2. Length of Gazprom's pipeline system ('000 km)
Figure 4.1.3. Capital expenditures in transportation and storage (bln USD)
Figure 4.1.4. Development of underground gas storage in Russia
Figure 4.1.5. Priorities of UGTS development
Figure 4.2.1. Maximum potential expansion of gas transportation capacity to Europe by Gazprom (bcm)
Figure 5.1.1. Primary energy consumption in Armenia by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.2.1. Primary energy consumption in Austria by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.3.1. Primary energy consumption in Azerbaijan by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.4.1. Primary energy consumption in Belarus by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.5.1. Primary energy consumption in Belgium by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.5.2. Gas imports into Belgium by country, 2004
Figure 5.5.3. Interconnector shareholders
Figure 5.6.1. Primary energy consumption in Bulgaria by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.7.1. Primary energy consumption in China by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.8.1. Primary energy consumption in the Czech Republic by type of fuel, 2004
(bcm)
Figure 5.9.1. Primary energy consumption in Estonia by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.9.2. Gazprom gas exports to Estonia, 1996-2004 (bcm)
Figure 5.9.3. Eesti Gaas shareholders (to the end of 2004)
Figure 5.10.1. Primary energy consumption in Finland by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.10.2. Gasum shareholders
Figure 5.12.1. Primary energy consumption in France by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.12.2. Gas imports into France by country, 2004
Figure 5.13.1. Primary energy consumption in Georgia by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.14.1. Primary energy consumption in Germany by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.14.2. Gas imports into Germany by country, 2004
Figure 5.15.1. Primary energy consumption in Greece by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.16.1. Primary energy consumption in Hungary by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.17.1. Primary energy consumption in Italy by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.17.2. Gas imports into Italy by country, 2004
Figure 5.18.1 Primary energy consumption in Japan by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.18.2. LNG imports into Japan by countries, 2004
Figure 5.19.1. Primary energy consumption in Latvia by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.19.2. Russian gas exports to Latvia, 1996-2004
Figure 5.19.3. Latvijas Gaze shareholders to the mid-2005
Figure 5.20.1. Primary energy consumption in Lithuania by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.20.2. Russian gas exports to Lithuania, 1996-2004
Figure 5.20.3. Lietuvos Dujos shareholders to the end 2004
Figure 5.21.1. Primary energy consumption in Moldova by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.21.2. Russian gas exports to Moldova since 1996
Figure 5.22.1. Primary energy consumption in the Netherlands by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.22.2. Gas imports into the Netherlands by country, 2004
Figure 5.23.1. Primary energy consumption in Poland by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.24.1. Primary energy consumption in Romania by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.25.1. Primary energy consumption in Slovakia by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.25.2. Gazprom transit volumes through Slovakia, 1998-2004 (bcm)
Figure 5.26.1. Primary energy consumption in the Republic of Korea by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.26.2. LNG imports into the Republic of Korea, 2004
Figure 5.27.1. Primary energy consumption in Switzerland by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.27.2. Gas imports into Switzerland by country, 2004
Figure 5.28.1. Primary energy consumption in Taiwan by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.28.2. LNG supplies to Taiwan by country, 2004 (bcm)
Figure 5.29.1 Primary energy consumption in Turkey by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.30.1. Primary energy consumption in the United Kingdom by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.30.2. Gas imports to the United Kingdom by country, 2004
Figure 5.31.1. Primary energy consumption in Ukraine by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.31.2. Russian gas exports to Ukraine, 1999-2004 (bcm)
Figure 5.32.1. Primary energy consumption in the United States by type of fuel, 2004
Figure 5.32.2. LNG imports into the United States by country, 2004
Figure 6.1. Current economic/strategic matrix for Gazprom's markets
Figure 6.2.1. The 'train wreck in progress' scenario: the supply/demand balance of Gazprom's exports to 2010-2015 (bcm)
Figure 6.2.2. The 'train wreck in progress' scenario: Gazprom's economic/strategic value matrix, 2010-2015
Figure 6.2.3. The 'global star' scenario: the supply/demand balance of Gazprom's exports to 2010-2015 (bcm)
Figure 6.2.4. The 'global star' scenario: Gazprom's economic / strategic value matrix, 2010-2015
Figure 6.2.5. The moderate scenario: the supply/demand balance of Gazprom's exports to 2010-2015 (bcm)
Figure 6.2.6. The moderate scenario: Gazprom's economic/strategic value matrix, 2010-2015

Table 2.1.1. Distribution of natural gas reserves in Russia by federal districts (tcm)
Table 3.1.1. Major gas fields in production: key parameters
Table 3.3.1. Russian gas balance: outlook for 2010 and 2020 (bcm)
Table 3.3.2. SWOT analysis: Development of Yamal Peninsula as Gazprom's future production base
Table 3.3.3. SWOT analysis: Development of reserves in Eastern Siberia and the Far East
Table 3.3.4. SWOT analysis: Shtokmanovskoye field development
Table 4.1.1. The old and new options of gas transportation from Yamal
Table 5.2.1. Russian gas exports and domestic gas consumption in Austria, 2000-2004 (bcm)
Table 5.6.1. Russian gas exports and domestic gas consumption in Bulgaria, 2000-2004 (bcm)
Table 5.7.1. LNG deliveries to China (current and prospective)
Table 5.8.1. Russian gas exports and domestic gas consumption in the Czech Republic, 2000-2004 (bcm)
Table 5.11.1. Gazexport's gas supplies and domestic gas consumption in Croatia, 2000-2004 (bcm)
Table 5.11.2. Russian gas exports and domestic gas consumption in Slovenia, 2000-2004 (bcm)
Table 5.11.5. Russian gas exports and domestic gas consumption in Serbia, 2000-2004 (bcm)
Table 5.12.1. Russian gas exports and domestic gas consumption in France, 2000-2004 (bcm)
Table 5.14.1. Russian gas exports and domestic gas consumption in Germany, 2000-2004 (bcm)
Table 5.15.1. Russian gas exports and domestic gas consumption in Greece, 2000-2004 (bcm)
Table 5.16.1. Russian gas exports and domestic gas consumption in Hungary, 2000-2004 (bcm)
Table 5.17.1. Russian gas exports and domestic gas consumption in Italy, 2000-2004 (bcm)
Table 5.18.1. Russian LNG sales to Japan after 2007
Figure 5.23.1. Primary energy consumption in Poland by type of fuel, 2004

Table 5.23.1. Russian gas exports and domestic gas consumption in Poland, 2000-2004 (bcm)
Table 5.24.1. Russian gas exports and domestic gas consumption in Romania, 2000-2004 (bcm)
Table 5.29.1. Russian gas exports and domestic gas consumption in Turkey, 2000-2004 (bcm)
Table 5.29.2. Turkey gas balance forecast (bcm)
2010-2015

Map 4.1.1. The United Gas Transmission System (UGTS)
Map 4.1.2. High loads of the gas transportation system in 2005-2010
Map 4.1.3. High loads of the gas transportation system in 2011-2015
Map 4.1.4. Central Asia-Center pipeline system
Map 4.2.1. Yamal-Europe pipeline system
Map 4.2.2. North European gas pipeline
Map 4.2.3. East Siberian gas transport options (option West)
Map 4.2.4. East Siberian gas transport options (option Center)
Map 4.2.5. East Siberian gas transport options (option East)
Map 5.2.1. Austria as Central European gas hub: main gas flows
Map 5.14.1. Natural gas pipeline system of Germany
Map 5.29.1. Natural gas pipeline system of Turkey
Map 5.31.1. Natural gas pipeline system of Ukraine