The Future of Oil Exports from Russia

The Future of Oil Exports from Russia focuses on major issues that determine Russia's current and future positions as key oil exporter:

• export potential of Russia’s petroleum industry
• oil exports from Russia by route and transportation type
• current status of, and trends in government regulation of oil exports
• capability of transportation infrastructure to deliver oil to world markets and outlook for infrastructure development

Introduction

Chapter 1. Review of Sector Development

1.1 Oil production resource base
1.2 Oil production
1.3 Industry structure
1.4 Oil distribution

 
Chapter 2. Transportation Infrastructure

2.1 Pipeline transportation: overview
     2.1.1 Transneft system
     2.1.2 Attributes of the Transneft oil pipeline system 
     2.1.3 The CPC pipeline system
     2.1.4 Export capacity of oil pipeline infrastructure
2.2 Oil transportation via rail: overview
     2.2.1 Access to railroad infrastructure 
     2.2.2 Rolling stock
2.3 Marine terminals
     2.3.1 Principal crude oil export routes via seaports 
     2.3.2 Marine terminal capacity

 
Chapter 3. Regulating Exports

3.1 Regulatory framework, regulatory authorities
3.2 Transportation tariffs
     3.2.1 Tariffs for oil transportation via Transneft
     3.2.2 Railway tariffs
     3.2.3 River freight tariffs
3.3 Export duty

Chapter 4. Russia's Oil Exports: Primary Routes and Transportation Modes
4.1 Export statistics
4.2 Russian crude exports via pipeline
     4.2.1 Black Sea route
     4.2.2 Central European export route (the Druzhba oil pipeline)
     4.2.3 Northwestern (Baltic) export route
4.3 Oil exports bypassing the Transneft system
4.4 Oil exports by rail
     4.4.1 Railroad transportation arrangements
     4.4.2 Rail export routes
4.5 Crude exports by river
4.6 Transportation costs by mode of transportation

 
Chapter 5. Russian Oil Industry's Export Potential
5.1 Oil production forecast: 2006 through 2015
5.2 Oil refining
5.3 Export potential
5.4 Transportation capabilities

 
Chapter 6. Expanding Transportation Infrastructure
6.1 Projects to expand existing pipelines
     6.1.1 Baltic Pipeline System-70
     6.1.2.Caspian Pipeline Consortium-67
6.2 New pipeline projects 
     6.2.1 Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline
     6.2.2 Kharyaga-Indiga
6.3 Projects to develop port infrastructure
     6.3.1 Novorossiysk
     6.3.2 Tuapse 
     6.3.3 Varandei
6.4 Projects to expand railroad infrastructure
6.5 Projects on foreign soil to expand Russian exports
     6.5.1 Burgas-Alexandroupolis
     6.5.2 Samsun-Ceyhan

Appendix

Figure I.1 Forecast of oil production in Russia through 2015
Figure I.2 Forecast of Russia's export capacity thorugh 2015
Figure I.3 Oil exports from domestic and foreign ports, 2001-2005
Figure I.4 Crude oil exports by rail
Figure I.5 Crude oil exports to China
Figure I.6 Oil consumption worldwide and in the Asia Pacific Region
Figure 1.1 Distribution of explored resources (ABC1) by region
Figure 1.2 Russia's oil and gas provinces
Figure 1.3 Yearly percentage changes in oil production, 1992-2005
Figure 1.4 Oil production in Russia by company in 2000, MMt (%)
Figure 1.5 Oil production in Russia by company in 2005, MMt (%)
Figure 1.6 Price of refined products vs. crude exports, Nizhnevartovsk metering station
Figure 2.1 Transneft pipeline and railway infrastructure in Russia
Figure 2.2 Caspian pipeline system and rail service
Figure 2.3 Distribution of crude oil exports from Russia via pipeline in 2005
Figure 2.4 Oil deliveries by railroad in 2005, MMt
Figure 2.5 Changes in ownership of tank cars, 1997-2005
Figure 2.6 Largest independent owners of tank cars in mid-2005
Figure 2.7 Russian Railways and private tank cars used for oil export
Figure 2.8 Crude exports via seaports during 2005, as percentage
Figure 2.9 Russian crude exports via Baltic ports, 2005
Figure 2.10 Russian crude exports via Black Sea ports, 2005
Figure 4.1 Transit of CIS crude through Russia
Figure 4.2 Black Sea ports, transportation routes and related infrastructure
Figure 4.3 Transshipment of oil through Novorossiysk
Figure 4.4 Crude exports via Novorossiysk, 2005
Figure 4.6 Crude exports via Novorossiysk, Tuapse and Odessa by company, 2005
Figure 4.5 Crude exports via Tuapse
Figure 4.7 Crude exports via Odessa
Figure 4.8 Crude exports via Yuzhny
Figure 4.9 Crude exports via Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka (CPC)
Figure 4.10 Druzhba-II and Druzhba-I oil pipelines and related infrastructure
Figure 4.11 Crude exports via the Druzhba-II oil pipeline
Figure 4.12 Crude deliveries to Mazeikiu Refinery and Butinge
Figure 4.13 Crude oil deliveries to Mazeikiu Refinery and Butinge, 2005
Figure 4.14 Baltic Pipeline System and related infrastructure
Figure 4.15 Crude exports via the Baltic Pipeline System, 2001-2006
Figure 4.16 Crude exports via BPS by company in 2005, MMt
Figure 4.17 Crude exports via local port terminals
Figure 4.18 Crude exports from Sakhalin
Figure 4.19 Crude exports by rail
Figure 4.20 Crude shipments by rail from Transneft racks
Figure 4.21 Crude exports to China
Figure 4.22 Crude exports by river
Figure 5.1 Forecast of oil production in Russia through 2015
Figure 5.2 Forecast of oil refining in Russia through 2015
Figure 5.3 Forecast of Russia's export potential through 2015
Figure 6.1 Oil consumption worldwide and in the Asia Pacific Region
Figure 6.2 Forecast of demand for oil worldwide thorugh 2030
Figure 6.3 East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline route
Figure 6.4 Eastern Siberian oil production slated for the ESPO pipeline through 2015
Figure 6.5 Transportation costs: Western Siberia to the Pacific Ocean, various routes, $/t
Figure 6.6 Renovation of pipeline infrastructure west of Taishet
Figure 6.7 Kharyaga-Indiga oil pipeline
Figure 6.8 Varandei terminal and related infrastructure
Figure 6.9 Oil pipelines bypassing the Bosporus
Figure A.1 Oil terminals, pipelines and rails serving the Russian sector of the Black Sea
Figure A.2 Port Kavkaz and rails serving the Black Sea
Figure A.3 Terminals, pipelines and rails serving Kaliningrad Region
Figure A.4 Oil terminals, pipelines and rails serving northwestern Russia and the Baltic States
Figure A.5 Oil terminals, pipelines and rails serving the Arctic route
Figure A.6 Terminals and pipelines serving the Far East
Figure A.7 Terminals, pipelines and rails serving the Russian sector of the Caspian Sea

Table 1.1 Oil production, 2000-2006, MMt
Table 1.2 Sources and uses of crude oil, 2000-2006, MMt
Table 2.1 Crude oil exports from Russia via pipeline, MMt
Table 2.2 Export pipelines to distant countries and the Baltics, MMt
Table 2.3 Oil-loading rail racks belonging to Transneft
Table 2.4 Privately owned oil racks (excluding refineries)
Table 2.5 Seaports exporting Russian crude
Table 3.1 Oil production and export via the Transneft system, 2005
Table 3.2 Transneft tariffs as of January 1, 2006
Table E 3.3 Calculation of export duty per ton of oil
Table 4.1 Russian crude oil exports, 2005 and 2004, MMt
Table E 4.2 Oil pipelines serving Black Sea port terminals
Table 4.3 Crude exports via Black Sea ports
Table 4.4 Crude exports via the Druzhba pipeline in 2005, MMt
Table 4.5 Crude exports via northwestern transshipment facilities, Mt
Table 4.6 Crude shipments exported by rail via Russian and foreign ports, MMt
Table 4.7 Transportation costs by pipeline from Nizhnevartovsk and Samara to border crossings and seaports, July 2006
Table 4.8 Transportation costs by rail on key export route, Russian Railways
Table 5.1 Production-consumption of petroleum products, 2001-2005, MMt
Table 5.2 Russia's exports of refined petroleum products, MMt
Table 6.1 Oil pumping quotas of CPC shareholders, MMt
Table 6.2 Specifications of the ESPO oil pipeline
Table 6.3 Resource base for the first stage of the ESPO

Table 6.4 Basic characteristics of the bypass pipelines
Table A.1 Technical specifications of terminals in Muuga